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Forint pulls away from lows in thin trading



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WARSAW, Oct 14 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint edged away from last week's lows in thin trading on Monday, while other regional currencies were muted ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision later this week and with the conflict in the Middle East in focus.

The euro weakened for an 11th time in 12 sessions as investors priced in a widely expected 25 basis point interest rate cut from the European Central Bank at its Oct. 17 meeting, with data pointing to deteriorating euro zone activity.

By 1021 GMT the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was up 0.2% against the euro to 400.35, nearing the 400 psychological level which it slipped across again late last week.

"There is minimal activity in the market, and it is trading in this 397-402 range, and the central bank is also trying to keep the forint from quickly weakening further with its messages," a Budapest-based trader said.

"Last week's inflation (reading for Hungary) came in lower than expected and the central bank said there will probably be no rate cut in October, so the rate differential still helps the forint."

Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag last week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's maininterest rate, which remains the European Union's highest alongside Romania's, after an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook pushed the forint to 18-month-lows.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was steady against the euro at 4.29, back below the 4.30 psychological level it breached earlier this month.

"The high resistance of the zloty to the current decline in EUR-USD is, in our opinion, a good prognosis, as long as we don't see a larger correction in the markets," ING BSK analysts wrote in a note.

They pointed out that a lack of details from China on economic stimulus had limited negative impact on sentiment in Asia and that in the Middle East there was no major escalation of tensions in over the weekend.

"This should support the gradual strengthening of EM (emerging market) currencies, including the zloty. In our opinion, the EUR/PLN pair may return to 4.27-28 during the week."

The Czech crown was also largely stable, trading up 0.1% at 25.27 per euro, and pulling away from two-month lows hit earlier this month.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1221 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2700

25.2890

+0.08%

-2.25%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

400.3500

401.3250

+0.24%

-4.29%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2900

4.2883

-0.04%

+1.27%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9745

4.9748

+0.01%

-0.00%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9300

117.0300

+0.09%

+0.27%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1600.07

1593.9300

+0.39%

+13.16%

Budapest

.BUX

74395.92

74264.68

+0.18%

+22.73%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2331.03

2333.75

-0.12%

-0.51%

Bucharest

.BETI

17657.91

17727.84

-0.39%

+14.88%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3370

0.0240

+109bps

+4bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6280

0.0100

+150bps

+2bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.9410

0.0180

+167bps

+2bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9560

0.0170

+271bps

+3bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2980

0.0240

+317bps

+3bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6010

0.0190

+333bps

+3bps


FORWARD







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.80

3.50

3.32

4.15

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.64

6.35

6.12

6.34

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.79

5.49

5.07

5.87

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************




Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

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