Dollar rebounds after weak jobs data; traders eye US election
Strikes, hurricanes impact labor market data
Traders firm bets on Fed interest-rate cuts
Sterling set to snap 5-week losing streak
Updates to U.S. afternoon
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Laura Matthews
NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) -The dollar rose against the euro and rebounded against most major currencies on Friday after traders digested data showing U.S. job growth slowed sharply in October amid disruptions from hurricanes and strike action by aerospace factory workers.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 12,000 jobs after a downwardly revised 223,000 in September, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast October payrolls rising 113,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, offering assurance that the labor market remains on a solid footing.
Hurricane Helene devastated the Southeast in late September and Hurricane Milton lashed Florida a week later. A total 41,400 new workers were on strike, including machinists at Boeing BA.N and Textron TXT.N, an aircraft company, when employers were surveyed for October's employment report.
"The dollar index has fully recovered since this morning's data release, shifting focus towards the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming (U.S. presidential) election," said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow in Chicago.
"Current polls continue to depict the race as a toss-up, with a potential risk of delayed results, making next week a busy one, since the (Federal Reserve) is also meeting just days later."
The subdued jobs report, he added, maintains the Fed's trajectory for a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut this month.
The euro was down 0.40% against the dollar at $1.084.
The dollar index .DXY, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.36% at 104.24.
"It's important when looking at the downward revisions, especially that most of that wildly negative figure came in August rather than in September, so the picture for the end of the year still doesn't seem too grisly," said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA.
Traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate were pricing about a 99% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut on Nov. 7, to 4.5%-4.75%.
That Fed bets haven't changed much either indicate "traders are treating this as more of a fluke" and the healthy labor market is keeping the greenback afloat, Given said.
"There's also a big contingent of the market that's likely going to stay quite cautious until all of the risk events of next week are off the table, keeping USD range-bound," she added.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report was the last major economic data before Americans head to the polls on Nov. 5 and face a choice of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country's next president.
Opinion polls show the race is very tight. The Fed announces its policy decision two days after the election.
The dollar was on pace to snap a three-session losing streak against the yen, rising 0.60% to 152.94, ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan.
Less dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda following the central bank's decision to stand pat on Thursday had lifted the yen earlier this week.
"We think the chances of a December rate hike have somewhat increased after Gov. Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday. Their base case remains for the BOJ to raise rates again in January to 0.5%.
Sterling GBP= was up 0.26% at $1.29632 on Friday, and set to snap a five-week streak of weekly losses against the dollar. Short-term British government borrowing costs headed for their biggest weekly jump in over a year on Friday, as Labour's tax-and-spend budget raised inflation expectations.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was up 0.57% on the day at $69,531.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Laura Matthews in New York; Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper and Brigid Riley; Editing by Barbara Lewis, Jane Merriman and Mike Harrison
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
