Dollar index may fall towards 95.87 in Q4
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SINGAPORE, Sept 30 (Reuters) -The dollar index .DXY may fall towards 95.87 in the fourth quarter, driven by a wave (c).
A five-wave cycle from the March 2008 low of 70.70 has completed. It is expected to be reversed further. A rising channel points at a target around 95.87.
The uptrend, as well as the fall from the August 2022 high of 114.78, has been well-controlled by a set of projection levels on the rise from $72.70.
The 150% level of $100.82 seems to have been broken. The break opened the way towards 95.87 to $98.60 range. Based on the price band of the consolidation between 100.82 and 105.76, the index would drop to 95.87.
A closer examination on the daily chart from the Sept. 28, 2022 high of 114.78 uncovers a more precise target of 96.83, the 61.8% level of the wave (C) from 106.13.
A bearish pennant suggests a much lower target of 91.09. The index has completed a pullback towards the lower trendline of a wedge. It may not bounce towards the trendline again.
A rise above the Sept. 11 high of 101.82 would be the early sign of a downtrend reversal. The medium-term bearish outlook will be revised once the index breaks 102.58.
* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
** No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.
dxy q4 w https://tmsnrt.rs/3zFafok
Reporting by Wang Tao; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips
If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to wang.tao@thomsonreuters.com.
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