After gorging on China stimulus, markets await dessert
Oct 9 (Reuters) -After a week of gorging on China's aggressive stimulus announcements, markets appear to be suffering from indigestion.Stocks have turnedback down and the yuan has surrendered all itsgains. But Beijing maystill have dessert planned.
Whenmainland China markets reopened Tuesday, the National Development and Reform Commission's much-anticipated press conference ended up leaving investors with a sour taste. While repeating their commitment to implementing policy changes to shore up the economy, the NDRC dropped some crumbs for the market, indicating a partial front-loading of next year's government expenditures to boost Q4 economic activity.
The market was looking foraffirmation of planned fiscal expansion. Yet thatdecision isn't within the NDRC'sremit. Theonus falls upon the Ministry of Finance, but the actual size of expected special bond issuance to fund China's stimulus may not be revealed untilafter the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in late October.
Until then, stocks might gyrate a bit more asinvestors seekan equilibrium between relative undervaluation and feverish FOMO. The yuan might meanderwith the whims of the USD, which has been choppyrecently due to U.S. data surprises.
USD/CNH is likely to trade within a 7.0500-7.1000range for now, contained bythe 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements of the July-September drop.
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Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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