US recap: EUR/USD holds firm, undamaged by US PCE
USD/JPY-Calm after the carry unwind storm
AUD/USD-Longs stand their ground after US data
July 26 (Reuters) -The dollar slipped lower against most other major currencies on Friday after U.S. PCE inflation data failed to derail expectations that the Fed will cut rates by September and potentially ease three times this year.
Next week's Tuesday-Wednesday Fed meeting is a key risk on the immediate horizon, though rate futures are discounting no move, so the question is what signals polycymakers send about the September FOMC gathering, while the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday could help shape expectations.
There is less certainty about the outcome of the BOJ meeting next week, though the shakeout of yen shorts appears to have settled for the moment.
Though core PCE inflation came in slightly above expectations, the overall year-over-year number eased as expected while personal income growth fell more than forecast.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly, in contrast to the Reuters consensus forecast for a flat reading, while one-year inflation expectations were stable at 2.9% and the five-year view edged up to 3.0% from 2.9%.
U.S. Treasury yields were 4-6bp lower across maturities.
The S&P 500 rallied 0.96% by New York afternoon trade as some megacap tech and chip stocks recovered from the week's pummeling, while the largely in-line inflation readings kept bets of an early rate cut alive.
WTI fell 2.02% on declining Chinese demand and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire agreement that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.
Copper eased 0.52% and was on track for a third consecutive weekly decline on concerns that a return of physical buying could be short-lived in top consumer China as the economy remains sluggish in the absence of significant stimulus.
Gold rallied 0.84%, supported by lower U.S. Treasury yields amid bolstered optimism for an interest rate cut by the Fed in September after the PCE data.
Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.13%, USD/JPY -0.12%, GBP/USD +0.13%, AUD/USD +0.24%, GBP/JPY +0.1%, EUR/JPY +0.04%, AUD/JPY +0.14%.
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(Burton Frierson)
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