US recap: EUR/USD extends slide as data tempers aggressive-Fed bets
Aug 30 (Reuters) -The dollar gained on Friday, extending its recent rebound after U.S. consumption, income and inflation data fell short of motivating traders to augment bets on aggressive Fed easing next month.
Though annual headline and PCE inflation came in below Reuters consensus forecasts, the report also showed rising income and consumption.
Chicago PMI added to the firm tone by rising more than expected, while the U.Mich report was mixed, with consumer sentiment increasing slightly, though a smidge less than forecast, and one-year inflation expectations decreasing by one-tenth.
The data leaves the market awaiting next Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which will carry more weight than usual since Fed Chair Jerome Powell focused on the labor market in last week's Jackson Hole speech.
U.S. Treasury yields rose about 3-4bp across maturities, with the 2s-10s curve steepening to a barely inverted -1.7bp, according to LSEG data.
The S&P 500 gained 0.36% by New York afternoon trade, with the market reading Goldilocks into the day's data offering.
Markets remain convinced that the Fed will start cutting interest rates next month, but futures are divided on whether the U.S. central bank will kick off the cycle with a bold 50bp move or a more conventional 25bp adjustment.
The market has assigned a 30.5% chance to a half-point move, down slightly from before the morning's data, with payrolls likely to decide whether that increases or fades further.
WTI fell 3.04%, pressured by concerns about demand and the prospect of bigger supply from OPEC+.
Copper eased 0.08%, giving back earlier gains that had come on optimism about more government support for the economy of top metals consumer China.
Gold fell 0.68%, hurt by the firmer dollar and stronger yields.
Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.22%, USD/JPY +0.79%, GBP/USD -0.35%, AUD/USD -0.51%, EUR/JPY +0.53%, GBP/JPY +0.30%, AUD/JPY +0.37%, DXY +0.33%.
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(Burton Frierson)
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