US natgas prices jump 6% to 15-week high on rising LNG feedgas
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
May 13 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a 15-week high onMonday on lifted demand forecastsfor next week as gas flows increased to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants with the return of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas.
Still, there is a big oversupplyof gas in storage and output rose over the past several days.
Analysts forecast the amount of gas in storage was around 31% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.9 cents, or 5.7%, to settle at $2.381 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 29.
Thecontract remained intechnically overbought territory for a seventh day in a row for the first time since April 2022.
With gas prices up about 40% over the past two weeks, speculators last week switched their futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges from net short to net long for the first time since mid-January, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.1 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output rose about 1.9 bcfd over the past five days to a four-week high of 98.0 bcfd on Sunday with the return from maintenance of some gas pipes in Texas from a 15-week low of 96.1 bcfd on May 7.
Despite risingoutput over the weekend, U.S. gas production remained down about 8% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through May 28, except for some warmer-than-normal days from May 18-22.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 92.1 bcfd this week to 92.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.7 bcfd so far in May with the return of the 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $10 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU
Week ended May 10 Actual | Week ended May 3 Actual | Year ago May 10 | Five-year average May 10 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +80 | +79 | +93 | +90 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,643 | 2,563 | 2,212 | 2,013 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 31.3% | 33.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.28 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.39 | 9.42 | 9.97 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.48 | 10.46 | 10.45 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 33 | 52 | 39 | 56 | 56 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 104 | 81 | 81 | 89 | 88 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 137 | 133 | 120 | 145 | 144 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.2 | 97.7 | 97.1 | 102.5 | 94.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.7 | 104.7 | 103.9 | 109.7 | 101.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.4 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 8.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.8 |
U.S. Residential | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.7 | 32.4 | 34.0 | 34.2 | 28.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 72.9 | 71.5 | 71.7 | 72.4 | 69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 94.1 | 92.1 | 92.9 | 94.1 | 86.2 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 75 | 76 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 77 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 79 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 17 | Week ended May 10 | Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | |
Wind | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 16 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 41 | 40 | 37 | 37 |
Coal | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.14 | 2.03 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.60 | 1.61 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.57 | 2.54 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.45 | 1.54 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.68 | 1.68 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.65 | 1.69 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.73 | 1.82 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.70 | 0.32 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.95 | 0.98 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 24.75 | 27.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 22.50 | 30.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 20.00 | 28.75 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 42.25 | 55.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 6.25 | 17.5 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 1.50 | 11.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis and David Gregorio
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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