Week Ahead-ECB decision, Chinese data, Fed comments in focus
Oct 14 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank's rate decision, Chinese trade, activity and GDP data, and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials are likely to drive financial markets this week.
The ECB is widely expected tocut rates on Thursday, with over 90% of economists polled predicting a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.25% afterSeptember's inflation dipped below 2%; mostexpect another 25 bpscut in December. The tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference will be key for expectations.
The euro zone's data highlights are final September HICP,August trade and industrial production, and the German ZEW survey.
China's volatile markets will be driven by the fiscal stimulus plans announced on Saturday. The announcement was big on intent to stimulate the economy, but low on the measurable details that investors need to justify investment. On Sunday China's consumer inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while producer price deflation deepened, heightening the pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus. The market response this week will be interesting
The raft of Chinese data for September begins with trade on Monday; exports may ease to 6% year-on-yearfrom August's solid 8.7% expansion while imports may hold steady. Chinese house prices, industrial output, retail sales, urban investment, unemployment data, and Q3 GDP are due on Friday; GDP is seen slowing to 4.6% year-on-year from 4.7% in Q2.
Credit data may also be released with new yuan loans expected to more than double on Beijing's stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China's medium-term facility loan announcement Tuesday will be watched after below-forecast September inflation data at the weekend.
The U.S. has the Columbus Day holiday on Monday. September retail sales and industrial production, weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Business Index are due on Thursday, building permits and housing starts on Friday, while Federal Reserve officials will be offering their opinions during the week.
Monday is also a holiday in Japan. The week's main data releases are core machinery orders, trade, and the highlight will be September CPI inflation on Friday. BOJ board member Seiji Adachi will give a speech and news conference on Wednesday.
UK event risk begins with jobs on Tuesday, and then September CPI and retail sales will provide a snapshot of the economy.
New Zealand's Q3 CPI on Wednesday will further shape Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate expectations after the central bank's dovish 50 bps rate cut last week. Speeches by RBNZ officials will be watched.
Australia's employment data is due on Thursday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks on Wednesday, and the RBApublishes its bulletin on Thursday.
Canada publishes Septemberinflation data, likely key to the size of the Bank of Canada's rate cut on Oct 23.
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Andrew Spencer and Krishna Kumar are Reuters market analysts. The views expressed are their own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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