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USD/JPY lower still in Asia, intervention, rates Trump?



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  • USD/JPY 158.63 to 156.06 EBS yesterday, Asia 156.25 to 155.44 so far

  • Continuing move down from yesterday, various reasons being mulled

  • Renewed FX intervention suspected but FX volumes not as large as July 11-12

  • Soggy US short yields, flatter curve with long yields off more too

  • Dealers also note Trump-speak on trade, currencies - weak JPY and CNY

  • Flows too out of Wall Street and repatriation by Japanese investors?

  • All seen combined to push JPY up with market very short, plenty carries on

  • USD/JPY through number of daily tech supports including 155.52-83 Ichi cloud

  • To area of ascending 100-DMA at 155.12, daily lows below to 154.55 June 4

  • Some option expiries in area - 155.50-60 $527 mln, 156.00 $325 mln

  • Larger expiries left in dust above and unlikely to affect trading

  • Snowballing JPY buy-backs could fuel further USD/JPY moves down

  • Fibo 38.7% of 140.27-161.96 end-Dec-July move 153.67, 50% retracement 151.11

  • Related comments nL1N3J90RI, nL6N3J90GX, nL1N3J90IV, nL8N3J817R

  • Also nL1N3J90UT, on Beige Book nAQN2J94LR, nS0N3HV031, nL1N3J90W6

  • US markets nL1N3J90LL, nL1N3J9105, nL4N3J910O, nL1N3J9029

  • More on Trump nL1N3J90TZ, on Biden nS0N3II03G, for more click on FXBUZ


USD/JPY: https://tmsnrt.rs/3ydgpex

USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week: https://tmsnrt.rs/4f4c0ex

Yield on US Treasury 10s: https://tmsnrt.rs/3WtYecX

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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