US yields edge higher ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting
Updated at 10:09 a.m. ET/1409 GMT
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury yields were modestly higher on Monday, as investors digested last week's labor market data and looked towards inflation data and a Federal Reserve policy announcement late this week.
Yields jumped on Friday following a stronger-than-anticipated payrolls report from the Labor Department, reversing declines earlier in the week after other data indicated the labor market could be cooling.
On Wednesday, investors will scrutinize key consumer price index (CPI) data and signs inflation may be easing could alter expectations for the Fed's path of interest rates.
The central bank is scheduled to release its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the CPI report, and will also give its economic projections.
"Within an environment where investors really don't know which way this is heading, people are really getting anxious for the Fed meeting," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
"It seems that everybody (is) itching for a rate cut, but it's not justified as of yet. And so they're clinging on Wednesday morning, CPI data, hoping that'll give us more direction and additional commentary from the Fed later on that afternoon, trying to get some clarity."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note US10YT=RR rose 3 basis points on Monday to 4.461%.
The yield on the 30-year bond US30YT=RR rose 4 basis points to 4.589%.
The Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady at the meeting on Wednesday, while the probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points at the September meeting is roughly 50%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, down from nearly 60% a week ago, as the strong jobs report raised some uncertainty about the timing of a rate cut.
The U.S. Treasury Department will also sell $119 billion in coupon-bearing supply this week, including $58 billion in three-year notes on Monday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Tuesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes US2US10=RR, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 42.33 basis points.
The two-year US2YT=RR U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, edged up to 4.878% from 4.87% on Friday.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) US5YTIP=RR was last at 2.299% after closing at 2.291% on June 7.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate US10YTIP=RR was last at 2.315%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.
Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise
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