US natgas rises over 4% to near one-week high on hot-weather forecasts
By Rahul Paswan
Aug 7 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 4% to a near one-week high on Wednesday, boosted by forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks that should boost air conditioning demand.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 5.8 cents, or about 3%, to $2.07 per million British thermal units at 9:37 a.m. EDT (1337 GMT).
"The southern tier of the country has seen temperatures rise again, with Texas seeing triple-digit heat and calm winds leading to strong power-sector gas demands, and weather for later in the month has heat continuing, which is giving some support, as the storage surplus is expected to continue to erode," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 220 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 221 CDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal for this time of year is 190 CDDs.
Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to rise to 109.7 bcfd this week from 105.8 bcfd last week, before declining to 104.5 bcfd next week.
U.S. natural gas output will average around 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its August edition of the short-term energy outlook report on Tuesday.
That compares with 103.8 bcfd produced last year, and is a slight downgrade from a forecast of 103.5 bcfd in the July edition of the report.
Major U.S. natural gas producers are preparing to further curtail production in the second half of 2024, after prices sank nearly 40% over the past two months.
"Long-term markets could see some selling after the D.C. Circuit Court ruling yesterday, which vacated the FERC approvals for both Texas LNG and the Rio Grande expansion," Tradition Energy's Cunningham added.
The U.S. court overturned the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's authorization for NextDecade's NEXT.O Rio Grande LNG project for not issuing a supplemental environmental impact statement, the company said on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged lower on Wednesday, as ample supply offset the impact of forecasts that hot weather next week will increase power sector demand and concerns about possible disruption as tensions flare in the Middle East. NG/EU
Week ended Aug 2 Forecast | Week ended July 26 Actual | Year ago Aug 2 | Five-year average Aug 2 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +30 | +18 | +25 | +38 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,279 | 3,249 | 2,022 | 2,846 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 15.2% | 15.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.11 | 2.01 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.35 | 11.92 | 11.21 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.45 | 12.45 | 12.43 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 220 | 221 | 221 | 197 | 190 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 227 | 227 | 222 | 199 | 194 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.5 | 103.5 | 103.8 | 102.3 | 96.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.7 | 8.0 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.3 | 111.5 | 111.5 | N/A | 103.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.8 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 7.7 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
U.S. Power Plant | 47.9 | 50.7 | 45.6 | 48.3 | 43.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.9 | 21.8 | 21.3 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 84.9 | 88.2 | 83.2 | 84.8 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 105.8 | 109.7 | 104.5 | N/A | 96.1 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 78 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Aug 9 | Week ended Aug 2 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 19 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 16 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.83 | 1.83 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.37 | 1.41 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.28 | 3.25 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.28 | 1.27 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.73 | 1.72 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.43 | 1.50 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.59 | 2.89 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.05 | 0.30 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.64 | 0.64 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 29.50 | 33.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 36.50 | 57.75 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 75.75 | 130.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 79.00 | 70.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 80.00 | 82.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 48.25 | 80.50 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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