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US natgas prices slip 2% on rising output, lower demand



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 27 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2%on Thursday on arise in output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.

That price decline cameeven though last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year for a seventh week in a row and theheat wave blanketing much of the countrywill likely remain in place through at least mid-July. That heat should force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming.

Traders said recent storage builds have been smaller than usual because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Higher prices in recent weeks, however, have prompted some producers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 21.

That was close to the 51-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 81 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 85 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Even though storage builds have been smaller than average in recent weeks, the amount of gas in storage was still around 21% higher than usual for this time of year.

On their first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.0 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $2.685 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

In Texas, the power grid operator for most of the state projected peak demand would break the record for the month of June on Thursday as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states roseto an average of 98.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 12.

But with less heat forecast next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 102.9 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 12.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 12.9 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Feedgas to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport, one of the most watched U.S. LNG plants because it has a history of swaying global gas prices when it shuts, was on track to rise to 1.9 bcfd on Thursday after dropping to a seven-week low of 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday. Freeport told Texas environmental regulators that the second of three liquefaction trains tripped on Tuesday due to an issue with a power feed.

In other LNG news, Venture Global's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana started to take in pipeline gas on Wednesday, signaling the plant was on track to produce its first LNG later this year as expected.

Separately, U.S. energy regulators approved Venture Global's request to build the CP2 LNG export plant in Louisiana.

Week ended June 21 Actual

Week ended June 14 Actual

Year ago June 21

Five-year average

June 21


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+52

+71

+81

+85


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,097

3,045

2,783

2,569


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

20.6%

22.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.77

2.75

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.79

10.69

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.62

12.74

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

5

7

4

6

5

U.S. GFS CDDs

245

242

202

192

190

U.S. GFS TDDs

250

249

206

198

195

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.8

99.6

99.7

102.3

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.9

7.6

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.8

107.4

107.3

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.9

1.9

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.8

7.1

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

12.1

11.9

11.8

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

39.4

45.1

42.4

40.6

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.7

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.4

82.1

79.0

77.0

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

98.0

102.9

99.9

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

76

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

79

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 28

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Wind

9

12

9

11

11

Solar

5

6

6

6

6

Hydro

5

6

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

43

40

41

41

40

Coal

19

18

16

15

14

Nuclear

17

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.45

2.61


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.81

2.13


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.02

2.29


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.84

2.02


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.13

2.28


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.03

2.18


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.47

2.68


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.55

2.52




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.54

0.56



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

32.75

48.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

34.75

37.50


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

37.00

54.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

49.00

36.36




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

33.50

49.25


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

34.00

37.75




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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