US natgas prices slip 2% on rising output, lower demand
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
June 27 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2%on Thursday on arise in output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.
That price decline cameeven though last week's storage build was smaller than usual for this time of year for a seventh week in a row and theheat wave blanketing much of the countrywill likely remain in place through at least mid-July. That heat should force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming.
Traders said recent storage builds have been smaller than usual because several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. Higher prices in recent weeks, however, have prompted some producers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 21.
That was close to the 51-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 81 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 85 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Even though storage builds have been smaller than average in recent weeks, the amount of gas in storage was still around 21% higher than usual for this time of year.
On their first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.0 cents, or 2.2%, to settle at $2.685 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
In Texas, the power grid operator for most of the state projected peak demand would break the record for the month of June on Thursday as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states roseto an average of 98.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 12.
But with less heat forecast next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 102.9 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 12.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 12.9 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Feedgas to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport, one of the most watched U.S. LNG plants because it has a history of swaying global gas prices when it shuts, was on track to rise to 1.9 bcfd on Thursday after dropping to a seven-week low of 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday. Freeport told Texas environmental regulators that the second of three liquefaction trains tripped on Tuesday due to an issue with a power feed.
In other LNG news, Venture Global's Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana started to take in pipeline gas on Wednesday, signaling the plant was on track to produce its first LNG later this year as expected.
Separately, U.S. energy regulators approved Venture Global's request to build the CP2 LNG export plant in Louisiana.
Week ended June 21 Actual | Week ended June 14 Actual | Year ago June 21 | Five-year average June 21 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +52 | +71 | +81 | +85 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,097 | 3,045 | 2,783 | 2,569 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 20.6% | 22.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.77 | 2.75 | 2.47 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.79 | 10.69 | 10.32 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.62 | 12.74 | 10.61 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 245 | 242 | 202 | 192 | 190 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 250 | 249 | 206 | 198 | 195 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 98.8 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 102.3 | 94.7 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 106.8 | 107.4 | 107.3 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 8.5 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 45.1 | 42.4 | 40.6 | 36.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.4 | 82.1 | 79.0 | 77.0 | 73.6 |
Total U.S. Demand | 98.0 | 102.9 | 99.9 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 76 | 76 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 79 | 79 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 28 | Week ended Jun 21 | Week ended Jun 14 | Week ended Jun 7 | Week ended May 31 | |
Wind | 9 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 40 |
Coal | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.45 | 2.61 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.81 | 2.13 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.02 | 2.29 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.84 | 2.02 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.13 | 2.28 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.03 | 2.18 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.47 | 2.68 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.55 | 2.52 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.54 | 0.56 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 32.75 | 48.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 34.75 | 37.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 37.00 | 54.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 49.00 | 36.36 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 33.50 | 49.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 34.00 | 37.75 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Nick Zieminski
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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