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US natgas prices slide 3% on signs of rising output, Golden Pass LNG worries



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 21 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about3% on Tuesday on signs producers were no longer cutting output and worries the bankruptcy of a contractor working on Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergies' Golden Pass LNG export plant in Texas could delay the project and reduce expected demand for gas next year.

Zachry Holdings ZHII.UL, one of the companies building Golden Pass, filed for bankruptcy citing challenges at the project. Even before the bankruptcy some analysts had alreadyshifted their expected startup of the project from the first half of 2025 to the second half of 2025.

In addition, traders said gas futures were down as speculators cash in their long bets after prices soared about 63% over the prior three weeks to a four-month high in the prior session.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.0 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $2.671 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since Jan. 17.

Despite the small price decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory for a 13th day in a row for the first time since April 2022.

In other news, more than 146,000 homes and businesses in Texas were still without power on Tuesday after severe storms battered the region last week and over the weekend.

Power demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, meanwhile, hit a preliminary record high for the month of May on Monday and will likely keep breaking that high over the next week as homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a spring heat wave.

In Massachusetts, utility regulators last week approved a deal between U.S. energy company Constellation Energy CEG.O and some New England gas utilities that will keep the Everett LNG import plant in service through 2030 to help keep the regional gas system reliable and meet growing demand, especially during the peak winter heating seasons.

In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana rose to their highest since January due to rising air conditioning use. That left prices at the PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL in Northern California this week less expensive than the Henry Hub for the first time since March 2022.

Energy traders said that was because demand for gas was low in California, while melting snow in the West was resulting in lots of cheap hydropower.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. The May average was up from 97.2 bcfd on Monday, which traders said could be a sign that the high prices were prompting driller to slowly start producing more gas.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would be warmer than normal from May 21-27 and then again from June 2-5 with a near normal stretch in the middle from May 28-June 1.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.5 bcfd this week to 92.3 next week.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.7 bcfd so far in May with the return of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December.

Week ended May 17 Forecast

Week ended May 10 Actual

Year ago May 17

Five-year average

May 17

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+89

+70

+97

+92


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,722

2,633

2,309

2,105


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

29.3%

30.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.80

2.75

2.30

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.06

10.12

9.97

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.51

11.05

10.45

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

20

19

27

39

40

U.S. GFS CDDs

130

130

91

107

107

U.S. GFS TDDs

150

149

118

146

147

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.5

97.5

97.3

102.6

94.4

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.1

7.2

6.9

7.4

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

104.6

104.7

104.2

110.0

101.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.6

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

5.3

6.3

6.1

5.6

U.S. LNG Exports

12.8

13.0

12.9

12.8

8.8

U.S. Commercial

5.2

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.8

U.S. Residential

5.0

4.2

4.2

4.5

6.9

U.S. Power Plant

32.3

34.1

34.1

32.1

28.4

U.S. Industrial

21.7

21.6

21.5

21.3

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

71.1

71.4

71.4

69.6

69.4

Total U.S. Demand

92.3

91.5

92.3

91.1

86.2







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

79

79

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

80

79

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

81

81

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 24

Week ended May 17

Week ended May 10

Week ended May 3

Week ended Apr 26

Wind


10

13

14

16

Solar


6

6

6

6

Hydro


8

7

7

7

Other


1

1

1

2

Petroleum


0

0

0

0

Natural Gas


40

41

40

37

Coal


14

14

13

13

Nuclear


20

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.52

2.44


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.85

1.45


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.45

2.34


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.70

1.46


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.05

1.85


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.02

1.57


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.74

1.38


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.15

1.62




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.93

0.86



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

31.25

28.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

50.50

40.00


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

32.25

34.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

15.81

12.25




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

3.50

4.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

0.50

2.75




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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