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US natgas prices slide 2% on rising output, lower demand forecasts



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Updates prices to afternoon trading

By Scott DiSavino

June 25 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on a slow increase in output and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected even as a brutal heat wave blankets much of the country.

That heat is causing power generators to burn more gas to meet rising demand for electricity to keep air conditioners humming.

On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.5 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.756 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Futures for August NGQ24, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 3% to $2.86 per mmBtu.

Inthe spot market, meanwhile, gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas turned negative for the first time since May as pipe maintenance trapped gas in the Permian Shale even as demand soars as consumers crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat wave.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall by about 3.0 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 97.4 bcfd on Tuesday, down from an 11-week high of 100.4 bcfd on Monday. Analysts at LSEG notedpreliminary output numbers are often revised up later in the day.

Analysts said the production increase, which started in late May, was a sign that some drillers were slowly boosting output after a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Prices were also up about 5% so far in June.

So far in June, CEOs at EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O said their companies have started to boost output.

Overall, U.S. gas production was still down around 8% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

Chesapeake is on track to overtake EQT as the biggest U.S. gas producer after Chesapeake completes its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 10.

But with less heat forecast next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 103.0 bcfd this week to 100.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants held at 12.9 bcfd so far in June, the same as in May.

That remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing plant and pipeline maintenance at Freeport LNG in Texas and several Louisiana facilities, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass.

Week ended June 21 Forecast

Week ended June 14 Actual

Year ago June 21

Five-year average

June 21


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+47

+71

+81

+85


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,092

3,045

2,783

2,569


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

20.4%

22.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.83

2.81

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.86

10.84

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.61

12.47

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

7

6

4

6

6

U.S. GFS CDDs

243

245

202

192

187

U.S. GFS TDDs

250

251

206

198

191

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.8

99.7

100.1

102.3

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.7

7.5

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.8

107.4

107.5

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.8

1.8

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.7

7.0

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

12.3

12.4

11.8

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

39.4

45.1

42.3

40.6

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.7

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.4

82.1

79.0

77.0

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

98.0

103.0

100.3

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

76

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

77

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

79

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 28

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Wind

8

12

9

11

11

Solar

6

6

6

6

6

Hydro

5

6

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

44

40

41

41

40

Coal

19

18

16

15

14

Nuclear

17

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.58

2.44


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.20

2.15


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.78

2.27


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.03

2.07


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.23

2.21


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.27

2.20


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.61

2.00


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-1.00

0.22




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.51

0.52



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

39.00

36.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

33.50

56.75


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

33.25

31.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

66.00

48.61




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

45.50

35.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

46.00

38.00




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Vijay Kishore and Nick Zieminski

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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