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US natgas prices slide 2% on rising output despite summer heat



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By Scott DiSavino

June 20 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Thursday as producers slowly increase output as power generators burn more gas to meet rising air conditioning use.

That price decline came despite forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.9 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.840 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:05 a.m. EDT (1305 GMT).

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts said the production increase so far in June was a sign drillers were slowly boosting output after a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Prices were also up about 10% so far in June. On a daily basis, output hit a 10-week high of 99.6 bcfd on June 17.

U.S. energy company EQT EQT.N, the nation's biggest gas producer, said earlier in June that it started boosting output.

Overall, however, U.S. gas production was still down around 8% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell in February and March.

Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest U.S. gas producer after its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 5.

LSEG forecast that heat would boost the amount of gas power generators in the Lower 48 burn to keep air conditioners humming, including exports, from 97.8 bcfd this week to 103.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday before the U.S. Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 13.0 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May.

But that remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing plant and pipeline maintenance at several Louisiana facilities, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass, Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading at $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and a six-month high of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU

Week ended June 14 Forecast

Week ended June 7 Actual

Year ago June 14

Five-year average

June 14


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+69

+74

+92

+83


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,043

2,974

2,702

2,484


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

22.5%

23.9%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.84

2.91

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.01

11.11

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.60

12.58

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

5

5

8

8

8

U.S. GFS CDDs

247

241

173

177

178

U.S. GFS TDDs

252

246

181

185

186

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.7

98.7

98.9

101.5

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.4

8.0

7.0

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

105.0

106.7

105.9

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.6

1.7

1.7

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.0

6.9

7.1

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.9

12.7

13.0

11.0

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

37.0

39.5

45.1

38.6

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.6

21.7

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.0

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

73.8

76.4

82.0

74.9

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

95.4

97.8

103.8

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

76

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

77

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

79

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Week ended May 24

Wind

14

9

11

11

13

Solar

6

6

6

6

6

Hydro

6

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

38

41

41

40

38

Coal

17

16

15

14

14

Nuclear

18

19

19

20

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.43

2.50


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.20

2.22


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

1.72

1.80


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.95

1.98


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.21

2.06


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.85

3.85


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.55

1.65


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.90

1.65




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.52

0.54



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

99.00

80.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

48.25

47.75


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

25.00

23.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

41.69

30.67




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

13.75

18.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

12.75

17.00




Reporting by Scott DiSavino

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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