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US natgas prices fall 4% on bigger-than-expected storage build



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 30 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fellabout 4% on Thursday on signs some drillers were starting to pull more gas out of the ground and on worriesabout the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage with a bigger than expected storage build last week.

Lending some support to prices were lifted demandforecasts for next week and an increase in gas flowingto liquefied natural gas export plants.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)said utilities added a bigger-than-expected 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 24.

That was bigger than the 78-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 106 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 104 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Analysts noted last week's build was small for this time of year after producers cut output over the past few months due to a drop in futures prices to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

The build left gas stockpiles about 27% above normal for this time of year.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.4 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.572 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 98.2 bcfd in April, according to financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

But on a daily basis, output was up about 1.4 bcfd since hitting a 15-week low of 96.3 bcfd on May 1. Energy traders said that increase was a sign that the 56% gain in futures prices over the past four weeks prompted some drillers to start producing more gas.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 93.6 bcfd this week to 95.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.8 bcfd so far in May with the return of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 12-week high of 13.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from 13.6 bcfd on Wednesday and an average of 13.1 bcfd over the prior seven days.

That daily feedgas increase came with small increases in flows to several plants in Louisiana, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass. Flows to Freeport were on track to reach a six-month high of 2.1 bcfd.

U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.1 bcfd so far in May, up from 6.5 bcfd in April and the current monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August 2023.

Analysts said U.S. exports to Mexico rose as power generators in Mexico burned more gas to produce electricity to meet record power demand earlier this week and as U.S. energy firm New Fortress Energy NFE.O prepares to start producing LNG at its Altamira export plant.

Week ended May 24 Actual

Week ended May 17 Actual

Year ago May 24

Five-year average

May 24


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+84

+78

+106

+104


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,795

2,711

2,415

2,209


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

26.5%

28.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.66

2.67

2.30

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.87

10.72

9.97

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.83

11.96

10.45

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

12

14

18

27

25

U.S. GFS CDDs

156

153

106

125

130

U.S. GFS TDDs

168

167

124

152

155

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.9

98.7

98.6

102.8

94.4

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.5

7.0

7.0

7.8

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

105.4

105.7

105.7

110.6

101.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.5

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.4

7.1

7.1

6.4

5.6

U.S. LNG Exports

12.9

13.2

13.5

13.4

8.8

U.S. Commercial

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

5.8

U.S. Residential

4.2

4.1

3.8

3.9

6.9

U.S. Power Plant

33.4

34.3

36.0

31.8

28.4

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.5

21.5

21.1

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

70.7

71.5

72.8

68.1

69.4

Total U.S. Demand

92.9

93.6

95.1

90.4

86.2







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

77

77

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

78

77

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

80

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 31

Week ended May 24

Week ended May 17

Week ended May 10

Week ended May 3

Wind

12

13

10

13

14

Solar

6

6

6

6

6

Hydro

7

7

8

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

38

40

41

40

Coal

14

14

14

14

13

Nuclear

20

19

20

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.20

2.29


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.44

1.42


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.00

1.93


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.27

1.35


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.46

1.62


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.50

1.51


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.43

1.35


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.64

0.46




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.87

0.90



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

27.75

28.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

27.25

30.00


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

16.25

27.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

25.75

28.50




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

14.75

4.75


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

12.75

0.75




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Holmes, Alison Williams and David Gregorio

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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