XM does not provide services to residents of the United States of America.

US natgas prices jump 8% to 21-week high on output drop, hotter weather forecasts



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>UPDATE 1-US natgas prices jump 8% to 21-week high on output drop, hotter weather forecasts</title></head><body>

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 11 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8%to a 21-week high on Tuesday on a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

That price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, expectations gas supplies will soon rise with the giant Mountain Valley Pipeline nearing completion, and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage.

Analysts said current gas stockpiles were still around 24% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Mountain Valley said its pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia was "mechanically complete" and being "packed with gas." The company sought permission from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to place the project into service by Tuesday, June 11.

Analysts predicted FERC would probably authorize the project but not necessarily by Tuesday.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.3 cents, or 7.7%, to settle at $3.129 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), its highest close since Jan. 12.

That pushed the contract into technically overbought territory for the first time since late May.

In the spot market, next-day gas at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta, Canada fell to 60 cents per mmBtu, its lowest price since October 2022 for a second day in a row.

In other news, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico had a 20% chance of becoming a cyclone over the next seven days as it blows across Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean off the Carolinas. Meteorologists predict this could be a record-setting year for hurricanes and other tropical storms.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 97.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 20-week low of 95.2 bcfd on Tuesday. Traders, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Before recent output declines in June, analysts said increases in May were a sign producers were slowly boosting output due to a 47% jump in futures prices in April and May. Output hit a six-week high of 99.5 bcfd on May 24.

Overall, U.S. gas production has remained down around 10% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut drilling activities when prices fell in February and March.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through June 26.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 94.7 bcfd this week to 98.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 13.1 bcfd so far in June, up from 12.9 bcfd in May.

That, however, remains well below the monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023 due to ongoing maintenance at several plants, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass, Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass and Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana.

Week ended Jun 7 Forecast

Week ended May 31 Actual

Year ago Jun 7

Five-year average

Jun 7


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+75

+98

+90

+89


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,968

2,893

2,610

2,401


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

23.6%

25.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.07

2.91

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.90

10.85

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.97

11.97

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

7

8

14

12

13

U.S. GFS CDDs

207

198

138

160

157

U.S. GFS TDDs

214

206

152

172

170

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.3

97.4

98.0

102.7

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.3

7.2

6.9

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

105.6

104.6

104.9

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.8

1.6

1.7

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.7

6.5

6.9

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

13.2

12.9

12.9

11.3

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

35.4

36.9

40.4

37.0

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.6

21.6

21.2

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

72.2

73.7

77.3

73.4

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

94.0

94.7

98.8

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

76

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

77

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

79

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Week ended May 24

Week ended May 17

Wind

11

11

11

13

10

Solar

7

6

6

6

6

Hydro

7

7

7

7

8

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

41

40

38

40

Coal

15

15

14

14

14

Nuclear

20

19

20

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.61

2.46


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.25

1.15


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.05

1.83


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.21

1.11


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.81

1.49


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.44

1.18


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.80

1.55


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.95

0.27




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.61

0.61



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

25.75

23.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

24.00

22.25


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

39.00

17.50


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

14.00

23.50




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

22.75

32.00


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

19.75

7.00




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Aurora Ellis

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
</body></html>

Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.

All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.

Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.

Risk Warning: Your capital is at risk. Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone. Please consider our Risk Disclosure.