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US natgas prices hold near 3-week low on mild weather forecasts



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures settlednear a three-week low on Tuesday on expectations mild weather over the next two weeks will keep demand low.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.4 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.498 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since Sept. 20.

One factor weighing on prices in recent weeks has been a reduction in the amount of gas power generators burned after Hurricanes Milton and Helene knocked out electric service to millions of homes and businesses.

There were still about 172,000 customers without power in Florida from Milton, which hit the state on Oct. 9, and 12,000 out in North Carolina from Helene, which hit Florida on Sept. 26 before moving inland.

In total, Milton caused around 3.4 million customers to lose power, while Helene caused roughly 6 million outages.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center, meanwhile, projected there was a 50% chance that a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean would strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Many producers reduced drilling activities after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.6 bcfd to a preliminary four-month low of 100.4 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Energy analysts blamed part of the daily output decline on planned maintenance on Kinder Morgan'sEl Paso Natural Gas pipe, which transports gas from the San Juan, Permian and Anadarko basins to California.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will switch from colder than normal through Oct. 17 to mostly warmer than normal from Oct. 18-30.

With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 97.3 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, feedgas to the LNG plants was on track to hit a seven-month high of 13.9 bcfd on Tuesday.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices were trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia JKMc1. NG/EU


Week ended Oct 11 Forecast

Week ended Oct 4 Actual

Year ago Oct 11

Five-year average

Oct 11

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+68

+82

+93

+89

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,697

3,629

3,598

3,542

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

4.4%

5.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.47

2.49

3.15

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

12.49

12.92

14.55

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.11

13.08

16.30

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

133

133

106

137

159

U.S. GFS CDDs

33

35

45

44

34

U.S. GFS TDDs

166

168

151

181

193

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

101.3

101.6

101.8

103.7

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.9

7.2

N/A

7.1

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

109.3

109.6

108.9

N/A

103.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.9

1.8

1.8

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.5

6.5

6.5

N/A

5.9

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

13.5

13.7

14.3

10.0

U.S. Commercial

5.3

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.9

U.S. Residential

4.8

7.9

7.7

7.8

7.3

U.S. Power Plant

35.5

30.9

30.0

21.4

30.9

U.S. Industrial

22.1

22.7

22.4

22.6

22.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

74.8

75.5

74.0

65.7

74.5

Total U.S. Demand

95.7

97.3

96.0

N/A

92.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023 % of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

93

94

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

89

89

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

89

89

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Oct 18

Week ended Oct 11

2023

2022

2021

Wind

12

9

10

11

10

Solar

5

6

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

44

41

38

37

Coal

16

16

17

21

23

Nuclear

19

18

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL


2.31

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL


1.56

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL


3.92

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL


1.22

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL


2.14

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL


1.56

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL


2.34

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL


0.28

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL


1.13

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL


28.50

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL


30.50

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL


35.95

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL


48.00

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL


25.50

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL


22.25



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and David Gregorio

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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