US natgas prices slide 2% as Hurricane Helene targets Florida
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 26 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Thursday on worries Hurricane Helene will reduce the amount of gas power generators burn by knocking out electric service to homes and businesses.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.2 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.585 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since June 27.
Futures for November NGX24, which will soon be the front-month, fell about 6 cents to settle at $2.753 per mmBtu.
The price declines came despite an expected smaller-than-usual storage build last week, bullish forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a continued reduction in output ahead of Helene.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) saidutilities added an implied 55billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 20. The net build after a reclassification was just 47 bcf.
That implied number was in line with the 53-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 82 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 88 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
But energy analysts noted last week's build was smaller than normal for the 19th time in 20 weeks after drillers reduced output earlier this year when gas prices fell to mulityear lows.
Average monthly spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana fell from a 12-month high of $3.18 per mmBtu in January to a 44-month low of $1.72 in February and a 32-year low of $1.49 in March, according to Reuters and federal energy data..
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast Helene would slam into the Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane later on Thursday. There were currently around 87,000 homes and businesses without power in Florida, according to PowerOutage.us.
Althoughstorms are more likely to reduce gas demand and prices through power outages and shutting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, analysts said this storm was on track to miss the LNG plants.
That means demand for gas from those LNG export plants should remain high at the same time that some Gulf Coast producers have cut output. The U.S.Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said producers shut about 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) or 20% of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico for Helene.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.1 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary four-month low of 99.6 bcfd. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
With milder autumn weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will drop from 99.5 bcfd this week to 98.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended Sep 20 Actual | Week ended Sep 13 Actual | Year ago Sep 20 | Five-year average Sep 20 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +58 | +82 | +88 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,492 | 3,445 | 3,333 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.1% | 8.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.68 | 2.64 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.99 | 12.26 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.10 | 13.06 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 39 | 32 | 30 | 54 | 80 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 100 | 100 | 105 | 93 | 71 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 139 | 132 | 135 | 147 | 151 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.9 | 101.5 | 101.6 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.3 | 109.0 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.9 | 40.7 | 38.4 | 37.0 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 78.6 | 76.7 | 74.7 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.5 | 98.5 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 27 | Week ended Sep 20 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.62 | 2.61 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.55 | 1.43 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.98 | 2.97 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.56 | 1.44 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.47 | 2.41 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.97 | 1.90 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.43 | 2.40 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.81 | 1.63 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.15 | 0.16 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 42.50 | 39.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 45.75 | 50.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.00 | 29.50 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 49.00 | 36.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 33.25 | 29.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 31.75 | 29.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Anushree Mukherjee; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Richard Chang and David Gregorio
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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