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US natgas prices drop 7% to 10-week low on Texas Freeport LNG outage



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

July 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 7% to a 10-week low on Monday due to the slow return of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas after shutting for Hurricane Beryl and on forecasts for less hot weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected

Freeport said it is repairing damage sustained in the hurricane. The company said it anticipated it would restart the first train this week and the remaining two trains shortly thereafter.

Traders also said prices were depressed by rising output and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage.

Analysts said there was currently about 18% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.1 cents, or 7.3%, to settle at $2.158 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 3.

That price drop also pushed the front-month back into technically oversold territory for the seventh time in the last nine days.

In other news, Saturday and Sunday were the hottest days so far this year and Monday and Tuesday were forecast to be even hotter, according to meteorologists.

That heat will likely force power generators to continue burning lots of gas to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming. Power generators burned a record 54.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on July 9, according to LSEG data.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.3 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May.

U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Several producers cut output earlier in the year after futures prices dropped to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. But higher prices in April, May and June prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly hotter than normal through at least July 30, but for some near-normal days from July 18 to 22.

With less hot weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 106.3 bcfd to 103.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.8 bcfd so far in July after Freeport LNG in Texas shut ahead of Hurricane Beryl on July 7, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Week ended July 12 Forecast

Week ended July 5 Actual

Year ago July 12

Five-year average

July 12


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+38

+65

+43

+49


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,237

3,199

2,959

2,744


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

18.0%

18.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.24

2.33

2.64

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.10

10.13

9.58

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.33

12.37

11.44

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

5

3

1

2

3

U.S. GFS CDDs

238

257

243

213

205

U.S. GFS TDDs

243

260

244

215

208

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.1

102.6

102.6

102.0

95.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.2

8.2

7.5

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.3

110.5

110.1

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.4

1.3

1.6

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.8

6.8

6.8

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

11.7

11.6

12.0

12.7

8.6

U.S. Commercial

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.5

U.S. Residential

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.6

U.S. Power Plant

49.5

49.7

46.3

48.0

43.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.6

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.1

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

86.4

86.6

83.4

84.6

79.9

Total U.S. Demand

106.3

106.3

103.8

N/A

96.9

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jul 19

Week ended Jul 12

2023

2022

2021

Wind

8

5

10

11

10

Solar

5

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

6

6

6

7

Other

2

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

45

47

41

38

37

Coal

18

18

17

21

23

Nuclear

17

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.17

2.23


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.90

1.63


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.90

3.13


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.61

1.47


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.07

1.83


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.12

1.78


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.10

2.59


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.37

0.81




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.50

0.77



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

39.75

46.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

50.00

49.50



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

22.75

25.25


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

30.00

84.00




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

42.25

80.00


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

39.75

63.50




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Josie Kao

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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