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US natgas prices climb 3% to 15-week high on output drop, demand rise



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

May 15 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a 15-week high on Wednesday on a drop in output, a rise in feedgas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plantssinceFreeport LNG returned to full service, andforecasts for warmer weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.

The warmer weathershould boost the amount of gas power generators burn to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming.

Traders said the futures priceincrease was kept in check by the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage. Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 31% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.2 cents, or 3.1%, to settle at $2.416 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), theirhighest close since Jan. 29.

That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a ninth day in a row for the first time since April 2022.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, output dropped by around 3.0 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary 17-week low of 95.2 bcfd on Wednesday.

That put U.S. gas production down about 10% so far in 2024 after several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

EQT is the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would turn from near normal now to warmer than normal levels from May 18-30.

LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 92.4 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.6 bcfd so far in May with the return to full service of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December.

But on a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hold at 12.4 bcfd for a second day on Wednesday as flows to Freeport remain at an 11-month high of 2.1 bcfd for a third day because flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana fell to a seven-month low of 3.8 bcfd.

Week ended May 10 Actual

Week ended May 3 Actual

Year ago May 10

Five-year average

May 10

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+77

+79

+93

+90


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,640

2,563

2,212

2,013


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

31.1%

33.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.36

2.34

2.30

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

9.48

9.42

9.97

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

10.45

10.45

10.45

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

28

30

39

56

52

U.S. GFS CDDs

115

109

81

89

93

U.S. GFS TDDs

143

139

120

145

145

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

97.2

97.3

97.5

102.5

94.4

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.5

7.1

6.9

6.9

7.5

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

104.7

104.4

104.4

109.7

101.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.8

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.1

5.6

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

12.8

12.5

12.8

8.8

U.S. Commercial

5.6

5.2

4.8

5.1

5.8

U.S. Residential

6.0

5.1

4.4

5.0

6.9

U.S. Power Plant

32.7

32.2

34.1

34.2

28.4

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.7

21.5

21.3

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

72.9

71.0

71.7

72.4

69.4

Total U.S. Demand

94.1

92.4

92.7

94.1

86.2







U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

76

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

77

77

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

79

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 17

Week ended May 10

Week ended May 3

Week ended Apr 26

Week ended Apr 19

Wind

10

13

14

16

16

Solar

6

6

6

6

6

Hydro

8

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

40

41

40

37

37

Coal

14

14

13

13

13

Nuclear

20

19

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.14

2.11


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.49

1.46


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.67

2.60


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.44

1.38


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.80

1.71


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.63

1.53


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

1.95

1.86


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.17

-0.73




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.76

0.81



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

30.50

30.25



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

41.50

36.25


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

20.00

75.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

53.00

50.50




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

17.50

16.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

15.00

15.00




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Leslie Adler

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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