US natgas prices climb 3% on higher demand forecasts, rising LNG feedgas
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
May 28 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Tuesday on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and as more gas flowed to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Prices rose despite signs that some drillers were starting to pull more gas out of the ground and the tremendous oversupply of gas still in storage.
Analysts forecast gas stockpiles were about 27% above normal levels for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.0 cents, or 2.8%, to settle at $2.590 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
Futures for July NGN24, which will soon be the front-month, were up about 2.0% at $2.83 per mmBtu.
Power demand in Texas hit records for the month of May four times in a row over the long Memorial Day weekend as homes and businesses cranked up their air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave. The heat was finally broken by storms that then left over 939,000 homes and businesses without power from Texas to West Virginia.
In the spot market, next-day gas prices in Southern California fell to a record low, while power in Arizona and California remained in negative territory amid low energy demand and ample cheap hydropower and other renewable supplies.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April, according to financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was up about 1.5 bcfd since hitting a 15-week low of 96.3 bcfd on May 1. Energy traders said that increase was a sign that the 56% gain in futures prices over the past four weeks prompted some drillers to start producing more gas.
Overall, however, U.S. gas production remained down around 8% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, delayed well completions and cut other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would hold near 93.7 bcfd over the next two weeks. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.8 bcfd so far in May with the return of Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.
That LNG feedgas, however, remained down from the monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December due to ongoing spring maintenance at Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Elba Island in Georgia and several plants in Louisiana, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass.
U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.2 bcfd so far in May, up from 6.5 bcfd in April and the current monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August 2023. Analysts said that signaled that U.S. energy firm New Fortress Energy NFE.O was preparing to turn U.S. gas into LNG at its export plant in Altamira, Mexico.
Week ended May 24 Forecast | Week ended May 17 Actual | Year ago May 24 | Five-year average May 24 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +89 | +78 | +106 | +104 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,800 | 2,711 | 2,415 | 2,209 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 26.8% | 28.8% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.81 | 11.81 | 9.97 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.94 | 12.96 | 10.45 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 14 | 19 | 18 | 27 | 28 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 145 | 138 | 106 | 125 | 125 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 159 | 157 | 124 | 152 | 153 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.9 | 98.9 | 98.7 | 102.8 | 94.4 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 105.4 | 105.6 | 105.5 | 110.6 | 101.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 8.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 33.4 | 34.2 | 34.8 | 31.8 | 28.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.1 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 70.7 | 71.5 | 71.6 | 68.1 | 69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 92.9 | 93.8 | 93.6 | 90.4 | 86.2 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 77 | 78 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 79 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 80 | 80 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended May 31 | Week ended May 24 | Week ended May 17 | Week ended May 10 | Week ended May 3 | |
Wind | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 38 | 40 | 41 | 40 |
Coal | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.22 | 2.64 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.45 | 1.88 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 1.63 | 2.03 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.40 | 1.83 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.63 | 1.94 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.55 | 1.88 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 0.92 | 1.20 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.45 | 0.25 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.86 | 0.99 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 25.75 | 33.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 83.75 | 50.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 24.00 | 141.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 14.25 | 20.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | -17.50 | -6.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | -18.50 | -6.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio and Bill Berkrot
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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