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US natgas prices climb 2% as heat wave boosts demand for cooling



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By Scott DiSavino

June 28 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected as power generators burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming during a brutal heat wave.

That price increase came even as producers boost output and the amount of gas in storage remains well above normal levels for this time of year.

Analysts forecast there was still about 19% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year even though output reductions earlier in the year kept weekly injections below normal over the past seven weeks. EIA/GAS] NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.9 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.724 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:09 a.m. EDT (1309 GMT).

For the week, prices were down about 1% after falling 6% last week and 1% two weeks ago.

For the month, prices were up about 4% after soaring about 30% in May and gaining 13% in April.

For the quarter, prices were up about 52% after dropping 30% in the first quarter.

In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the power grid operator for most of the state, said peak demand came close but did not break the record for the month of June on Thursday as had been expected. ERCOT, however, projects that demand will break the June record on Friday as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat blanketing the state.

In the spot market, meanwhile, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL plunged 604% to a negative $2.78 per mmBtu, the lowest since mid April, as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian Shale. That is the second time gas prices fell into negative territory during a brutal heat wave this week and the 19th time so far this year.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 13.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 103.2 bcfd this week to 100.8 bcfd with less heat and the July 4th holiday next week before soaring to 106.8 bcfd in two weeks when the weather is expected to turn extremely hot. The forecast for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 12.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 12.9 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

That decline was due to plant and pipeline maintenance at several facilities, including Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Corpus Christi in Texas and Cameron LNG, Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana.

Week ended June 28 Forecast

Week ended June 21 Actual

Year ago June 28

Five-year average

June 28


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+41

+52

+76

+69


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,138

3,097

2,859

2,638


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

19.0%

20.6%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.74

2.69

2.47

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.67

10.71

10.32

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.66

12.62

10.61

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

4

5

4

6

5

U.S. GFS CDDs

249

245

202

192

192

U.S. GFS TDDs

253

250

206

198

197

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.8

99.7

99.4

102.3

94.7

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.8

7.8

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

106.8

107.5

107.2

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.8

1.9

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.8

7.1

N/A

6.0

U.S. LNG Exports

12.6

12.3

12.9

11.8

8.5

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.7

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

39.4

45.3

42.4

40.6

36.3

U.S. Industrial

21.6

21.7

21.6

21.3

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

76.4

82.4

78.9

77.0

73.6

Total U.S. Demand

98.0

103.2

100.8

N/A

90.4

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

75

76

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

79

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 28

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Week ended May 31

Wind

9

12

9

11

11

Solar

5

6

6

6

6

Hydro

5

6

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

44

40

41

41

40

Coal

19

18

16

15

14

Nuclear

17

17

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.55

2.45


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.55

1.81


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.96

3.02


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.61

1.84


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.98

2.13


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.88

2.03


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.05

2.47


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-2.78

0.55




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.50

0.54



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

29.75

32.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

32.25

34.75


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

25.75

37.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

49.00

49.00




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

33.50

33.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

34.00

34.00




Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Anil D'Silva

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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