Ukraine 2024 wheat quality still low, millers seeks export curbs
By Pavel Polityuk
KYIV, Sept 9 (Reuters) -Economic difficulties caused by the Russian invasion, together with poor weather, are keeping the quality of Ukrainian 2024 wheat crop low, prompting millers to seek curbs on milling wheat exports to prevent a jump in bread prices.
Ukraine is a net exporter of wheat and, despite significant occupied and mined areas, has managed to maintain its harvest at around 22 million metric tons in 2024.
In pre-war years, the shares of feed and milling wheat were roughly equal, but this will be the second consecutive year where the share of food wheat has been lower.
Brokers, millers, traders and ministry officials expect the share of milling wheat to be between 30% and 45%.
The Ukrainian government and agricultural associations earlier this month agreed that wheat exports in the 2024/25 July-June season should not exceed 16.2 million tons, but the deal did not specify what kind of wheat could be exported.
"We have data that the share of milling wheat in the 2024 crop is around 30% and that is why we have suggested to the ministry that the share of food wheat in the export volume should not exceed this 30%," Rodion Rybchynskyi, head of Ukrainian millers association, told Reuters.
"Exporting a larger volume of milling wheat could lead to a shortage of wheat on the domestic market and, consequently, cause a rise in bread prices," he said, adding that exports of such wheat should not exceed 4.8 million tons.
Traders say that surveys of wheat lots at Ukrainian silos show that the share of wheat with protein of 11% to 12.5% is about a third, while 14% is wheat with 12.5% to 14% protein.
Wheat must contain at least 11% protein to be used to make bread. Below that level it is generally used for animal feed.
"I think that in reality the share of flour (milling) wheat will exceed 40%," an industry's source said
In 2023, due to rainy summers, the share of milling wheat was about 30%, analyst ASAP Agri said.
Early season shipments have focused on milling wheat and official statistics show that of the 3.3 million tons of wheat exported in the first two months of the current season, the share of milling wheat was 1.9 million tons or about 58%.
Ukrainian officials have indicated that they are ready to discuss more serious measures to restrict milling wheat exports when the volume of such shipments exceeds 3.5 million tons.
Reporting by Pavel Polityuk;
Editing by Alison Williams
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