The potential risk of missing the EUR/USD boat
June 13 (Reuters) -EUR/USD neared flat Thursday, recovering from earlier lows, as unexpectedly soft U.S. data fueled thoughts of potentially easier Fed policy if economic reports start trending in that direction, which could repel those considering to go long.
U.S. weekly jobless claims struck a 10-month high while continuing claims increased sharply to 1.82m versus 1.798m estimates and 1.79m prior.
May producer prices surprised to the downside for both headline and ex-food and energy. The data reinforced the view that disinflation may be returning, which was rekindled by unexpectedly soft CPI reported in the previous session.
The data left investors doubting the Fed's latest SEP projection for one cut in 2024 as short-term rates markets priced in a total of 50bps of easing for 2024.
Data trending in the direction of disinflation and weaker jobs growth could sink U.S. yields US2YT=RR and tighten German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR, which may rally EUR/USD.
CFTC data indicate investors are net-long the euro but positioning is nowhere near highs achieved in 2020 and 2023.
Investors looking to get long EUR/USD may have to scramble should data weigh on the dollar and the Fed have to shift course towards a more dovish stance.
For more click on FXBUZ
(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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