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Polish zloty firms as traders brace for rate decision



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Polish zloty firms as traders brace for rate decision</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, July 3 (Reuters) -The Polish zloty EURPLN= strengthened on Wednesday, as traders looked ahead to an interest rate decision that is likely to see the cost of credit remain on hold and the second round of parliamentary elections in France.

At a time when markets are expecting monetary policy easing both in core markets and elsewhere in central Europe, National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski has ruled out rate cuts for the country this year, supporting the zloty.

Markets have also been eyeing elections in France, with the euro and central European currencies firming earlier this week after the far-right's victory in the first round fell slightly short of some expectations, leaving the final result dependent on party deals before a second round on Sunday.

The zloty was trading 0.26% firmer against the euro at 4.3020, as of 0835 GMT.

"I think it's all about the weekend and the French elections ... the zloty will be tracing the global sentiment, so dependent on what euro/dollar does," said a Warsaw-based currency trader.

"The local event of the day is the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decision - the market expects no change and probably as before Glapinski will be hawkish so that should help the zloty slightly."

The Czech Crown EURCZK= and the zloty will firm over the next six months, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, adding that while the Hungarian forint EURHUF= is expected to add to its recent losses as the most vulnerable currency in the CEE region.

The crown and the forint were flat against the euro on Wednesday, at 25.1830 and 394.90, respectively.

Benchmark 10-year Polish bond yields PL10YT=RR were around 2 basis points lower at 5.785%, while Czech 10-year yields were CZ10YT=RR were almost one basis point higher at 4.203%

In comments published on Tuesday, the Polish finance ministry's debt chief told Reuters that Poland could cut supply of domestic debt by at least one-fifth in the third quarter, compared with prior-quarter levels, while fourth-quarter issuance levels were still flexible.

Poland could issue a benchmark-sized yen bond in the fourth quarter, and plans to be present in the Japanese debt market on a permanent basis, he added.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1035 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1830

25.1830

+0.00%

-1.91%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

394.9000

394.8500

-0.01%

-2.97%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3020

4.3130

+0.26%

+0.99%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9773

4.9779

+0.01%

-0.06%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9500

117.0500

+0.09%

+0.25%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1563.92

1559.7400

+0.27%

+10.60%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

71644.96

71456.00

+0.26%

+18.19%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2550.27

2528.44

+0.86%

+8.85%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18231.83

18229.27

+0.01%

+18.61%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.9990

NULL

+106bps

#VALUE!

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.0130

-0.0280

+141bps

-4bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2030

0.0070

+160bps

+1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.1630

-0.0010

+222bps

-3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6110

-0.0390

+301bps

-5bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.7850

-0.0240

+318bps

-2bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.34

4.11

3.93

4.70


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

7.15

6.87

6.61

6.87


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.76

5.67

5.41

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************








Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips

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