Halftime recap with bets on more scoring ahead
Nasdaq up ~0.2%, S&P 500 edges up, Dow dips 0.2%
Cons disc leads S&P 500 sector gainers; healthcare weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index falls ~0.4%
Dollar ~flat; crude edges up, gold slips; bitcoin off >2%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dips to ~4.46%
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HALFTIME RECAP WITH BETS ON MORE SCORING AHEAD
With half the year's trading done, John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management reviewed the mid-year equities result with a hopeful eye on the second half of the game.
The chief investment officer's replay of the market's highlights for the year so far included "great anticipation for accommodative monetary policy" followed by a shift in narrative due to upside surprise in inflation. But that shift was to embrace solid demand and AI enthusiasm as "catalysts for continued investment."
And while signs of a weakening economy pushed interest rates lower in the second quarter they helped push stocks higher as a result but did leave investors to "ponder the sustainability of valuations."
In the first six months of 2024, the S&P 500 gained 14.5%. Comerica's Lynch notes that the S&P 500 had returned more than 10% at mid-year just 10 times since 1990. But each time this happened, the benchmark index also produced a positive second half of the year, averaging a 10.8% return in the following six months and a 14.2% return over the next 12 months.
The S&P 500 achieved its first record closing high in two years on Jan. 19, 2024. Lynch notes that it has registered 31 record highs so far this year and that this equates to a new record roughly one in every three trading days.
In all, the CIO cites the gain as the S&P 500's 13th biggest for the first-half since 1950.
Looking to the second half, Lynch points out that the U.S. presidential election years are usually good for the market. And he says that fiscal stimulus often provides additional tailwinds in election years that have the incumbent president campaigning for re-election.
While the S&P 500 has risen every re-election year since 1944, Lynch says that 2024 already stands out as stocks are not usually so strong in the early part of the election year, with the second half typically providing most gains.
(Sinéad Carew)
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FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
FAVOR THOSE ASSETS LESS CORRELATED TO TECH, AI LEADERS - LAZARD - CLICK HERE
THIS WEEK'S LABOR DATA STARTS WITH A JOLT - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET NEAR FLAT AS POWELL SPEAKS - CLICK HERE
EQUITIES MAYBE A RISKY INVESTMENT AMID ELEVATED VALUATIONS, ELECTIONS - GOLDMAN SACHS - CLICK HERE
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD'S HEAD STILL ABOVE THE CLOUD - CLICK HERE
EUROPE'S INSURERS WEAK AS ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON KICKS OFF - CLICK HERE
Q2 U.S. EARNINGS GROWTH TO RISE 'INTO THE TEENS' - DB - CLICK HERE
INVESTOR POSITIONING IN EUROPE TURNS BEARISH - CLICK HERE
RBC GINGERLY LIFTS S&P 500 YEAR-END TARGET TO 5700 - CLICK HERE
THE PRICE IS RIGHT - CLICK HERE
CAGEY START FOR EUROPE - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN EQUITY FUTURES RED - CLICK HERE
DECISION DAY FOR FAR RIGHT'S RIVALS - CLICK HERE
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