FX options wrap - Yuan bids, EUR outlook, JPY hedge, expiries
There's been some demand for six-month expiry USD/CNH implied volatility in the low 5's - the date covers the U.S. election and China's yuan is the currency most likely to be affected by related trade policy.
EUR/USD FX option implied volatility languishes at long-term lows and reflects the lack of actual/expected volatility. Even the potential FX volatility threat from Wednesday's EZ PMI and Friday's U.S. PCE data is unable to attract much in the way of demand for volatility protection. Technicals highlight the potential for a setback sub 1.0800 now that billions of strikes around 1.0900 have expired.
USD/JPY hedging has lifted demand and premium for JPY calls and implied volatility as more JPY shorts are trimmed before the July 31 BoJ meeting and as USD/JPY falls back below 156.00.
AUD/USD is lower amid Chinese economic worries and falling commodity prices, but could find support/buyers before 100-200 dma supports 0.6608-0.6586. One-month expiry implied volatility reached 8.6 on Monday from 8.0 on Friday but was sold at 8.5 Tuesday as spot losses were running out of steam. There's a huge 0.6600 strike expiry on Wednesday that may limit AUD/USD near term, with big impending strikes in other currency pairs, too.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/USD 1-month implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3WyJz1a
USD/CNH FXO implied volatility 3-6 m https://tmsnrt.rs/3WB1tAx
USD/JPY 1-week and 1-month expiry FXO implied volatility https://tmsnrt.rs/3SksDsV
(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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