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Forint adds to gains as higher-than-expected CPI cools rate cut bets



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By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Aug 9 (Reuters) -Central European currencies strengthened against the euro on Friday, with the Hungarian forint leading the gains due to continued support from higher-than-expected July inflation data that dampened rate cut expectations, analysts said.

The forint EURHUF= was 0.23% stronger versus the euro, building on its gains in the previous session following the release of last month's consumer price data and the posting of a budget surplus that also exceeded market expectations.

"After (CPI) data were published, the forint started to strengthen as rate cut expectations were lowered," brokerage Equilor said in a note.

Hungary's headline inflation rose to an annual 4.1% in July, and core inflation accelerated to 4.7%, Thursday's data showed.

"Still, the market is pricing in at least three cuts or even a little more than that with a chance we could see some movement this month," ING wrote in a note.

"That said, our economists say the inflation numbers do not strongly point to a rate cut in August and see room for only two more reductions this year."

The National Bank of Hungary cut its borrowing costs HUINT.ECI= by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.75% in July.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= added 0.22% and was trading at 25.219 to the euro while the Polish zloty EURPLN= was little moved at 4.3235 versus the common currency.

Most stocks in the region were higher, with Budapest's equities index adding 0.25%.

Hungary's OTP Bank OTPB.BU outperformed the wider market and was up 0.33% by 0901 GMT after the company reported a 268 billion forint ($740 million) consolidated profit after tax for the second quarter, slightly above analyst expectations.

Hungarian energy company MOL MOLB.BU added 0.15% by 0906 GMT after it posted a quarterly net profit of 165 billion forints ($455.6 million) and reiterated its 2024 guidance.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1132 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2190

25.2740

+0.22%

-2.05%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

395.3000

396.2000

+0.23%

-3.06%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3245

4.3270

+0.06%

+0.46%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9769

4.9775

+0.01%

-0.05%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9300

117.0200

+0.08%

+0.27%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1560.91

1553.7000

+0.46%

+10.39%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

72105.77

71925.82

+0.25%

+18.95%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2281.69

2264.10

+0.78%

-2.62%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17870.06

17880.22

-0.06%

+16.26%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4650

-0.0110

+106bps

-1bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5160

0.0210

+136bps

+3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.7410

-0.0140

+149bps

+1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9160

0.0710

+251bps

+7bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.0070

-0.0690

+285bps

-6bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1950

-0.0970

+295bps

-8bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.90

3.52

3.32

4.43


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.70

6.22

5.78

6.55


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.68

5.36

4.90

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************



($1 = 362.1600 forints)



Reporting by Anita Komuves;
Editing by Helen Popper

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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