Euro zone bond yields tick higher as traders await US inflation report later in week
By Sruthi Shankar
Aug 12 (Reuters) -Euro zone government bond yields edged higher on Monday after a volatile week of trading on worries around the U.S. economy as investors awaited U.S. inflation data to gauge the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
The German 10-year bond yield DE10YT=RR, the benchmark for the euro zone bloc, rose 2.6 basis points to 2.248%.
It had sunk to a seven-month low of 2.074% on last Monday when worries about slowing U.S. jobs growth, an unravelling of Japanese yen-funded trades and disappointing earnings among large tech firms sent investors scurrying to the perceived safety of bonds.
Euro zone bond yields have steadily rebounded since then, with better-than-expected U.S. data easing concerns about an economic downturn and traders paring back bets of rate cuts from the U.S. central bank this year.
"It was a combination of overreaction but also data has shifted a little bit but that shouldn't necessarily warrant moves as big as that," said Rufaro Chiriseri, head of fixed income for the British Isles at RBC Wealth Management.
Focus shifts to U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday, with economists forecasting a slight pick up in inflation in July but not enough to move the needle on expectations of a rate cut next month.
Traders are currently pricing in rate cuts of 101 bps by the end of the year and roughly evenly split on whether the U.S. central bank will cut rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at its September 17-18 policy meeting.
"What we're seeing at the moment is a lot of investors being positioned for a sublime inflation outlook and there is that risk of disappointment. We could see yields rise if we do get a surprise in the data," said Chiriseri.
Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, which is more sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations, rose 2.9 bps at 2.41%.
Money markets show traders are currently pricing in about 66 bps of rate cuts from the ECB by the end of this year, down from the 72 bps seen last Monday.
The central bank cut rates by 25 bps in June, its first such move in five years, and traders see a 91% chance of another 25 bps rate cut in September.
Italy's 10-year yield IT10YT=RR was higher by 1.8 bps at 3.662%, and the gap between Italian and German bunds DE10IT10=RR narrowed 4 basis points to 140.7 bps.
Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; editing by Mark Heinrich and Angus MacSwan
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