Equities sell off, Nasdaq on track for correction, bond yields sink
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NEW YORK, Aug 2 (Reuters) -Global equities sold off on Friday and U.S. Treasury yields were at multi-month lows on concerns about the economy and downbeat forecasts from Amazon and Intel, which hit richly-valued technology firms.
The Nasdaq Composite index .IXIC was recently down 2.8%, putting it on track to confirm it is in a correction following worries about pricey Big Tech valuations and as weak employment numbers aggravated worries of a slowdown.
MICHAEL FARR, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, FARR, MILLER & WASHINGTON LLC, WASHINGTON, DC
“Markets are having a short-term emotional reaction to today’s economic data. And today’s economic data on employment were weaker and showed a slowdown in hiring and in wage growth. That has people worried that the Fed has kept rates too high for too long and in doing they have slowed the economy to the point where we may be heading towards a recession. Now that’s part one. The part two is that the market for the past several months have one through a series of all-time highs on great exuberance and enthusiasm for about 6 or 7 stocks that have going higher and higher: Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, etc. With such great profits and a little bit of fear, profit-taking feels good in the moment. I don't think this is the end of the world. It's one month's datum. It has been a trend in a labor market that has been normalizing. So there are these signs and more data to suggest that perhaps, if now it seems like short term fear and a bit of an overreaction by markets.”
“Professionals will look at that 3.80% on the 10 year Treasury. That's a huge move in the 10-year Treasury, we were at 4.25% 10 days ago. That's a big move when you get a 44 or 45 basis point move in the yield of the 10-year Treasury. This is big. So it certainly looks like there's a fear trade there. That there is a bit of a flight to safety and also an expectation that really seems to lock in a fed cut in September.”
STEVE ENGLANDER, HEAD, GLOBAL G10 FX RESEARCH AND NORTH AMERICA MACRO STRATEGY, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK NY BRANCH, NEW YORK
“There’s no silver lining (in the jobs data) anywhere as far as I can tell. They say they didn't have any kind of hurricane effects, and if they did, it's not enough to offset the degree of softness that we're seeing and I think particularly the unemployment rate is what people are keying off and historically when you see this kind of move, it suggests that things are slowing.”
“The only question is that most of the other indicators are not consistent with a really sharp slowdown at the moment. I mean, everything is soft, but nothing is catastrophically soft. This set of numbers stands out and obviously they're important numbers, but I think it will matter if they’re supported by other numbers that come out in the course of the next few days… to see if the weakness we’re seeing here is matched by everything else”
“In the last couple of days we've seen this real ramping up of fears that the U.S. economy is slowing down at a precipitous pace, much more so than any slowing we saw, say, in the first half of the year, and any slowing that's embedded in the Fed forecasts and most of the market forecasts.”
“Some of the bond market moves - the lower bond market yields is the path of least resistance because we have both soft economic data and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Both of them tend to push bond yields down so I think that’s part of the reason they've moved so sharply. But I'd say in the last couple of days the market has become really concerned about the slowing in the U.S. economy and when you look at the yield curve, they were badly positioned for it. What they were priced for was for kind of a gradual sort of slowing. And again, we're not convinced that this is the case, but it's clear that this is what the market is buying into now - that the pace of slowdown is going to be sharper.”
MICHAEL HARRIS, PRESIDENT, QUEST PARTNERS, NEW YORK
“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: right price stability is number one, and number two is focusing on a strong labor market. They haven't really had to worry about the labor market for quite a while. Their focus has been 100% on price stability and inflation. Now that inflation seems to be getting closer to their target, we're starting to see unemployment get worse. So this is that sweet spot for rate cuts.”
“I don’t think we have enough data points yet to tell us that we’re heading for a recession, but I do think that the fear of a recession is what’s driving markets”
ART HOGAN, MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH:
“This isn’t a category 3 hurricane, but we are seeing how markets react to signs that the economy is normalizing after turning hot in the first half of this year. The path to normalization is never going to be smooth, and we’re just not used to what ‘normalization’ feels like. Markets can find themselves overreacting and investors glom on to anything as an excuse to take profits.”
Tech stocks "led the way up and valuations got stretched. The good news is that though Nvidia may be down 30% or so from peak to trough, the S&P 500 is only down a fraction of that amount. There’s a rotation as well as a selloff.”
YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT (FROM NOTE)
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening. The Fed is already falling behind the curve and rates are overly restrictive – a 50 basis point cut in September would only be catching-up to, rather than getting ahead of, the curve."
MICHAEL ARONE, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS, BOSTON
“There are three thing driving this selloff. August is notoriously a difficult month for markets, and we went into it with markets priced for perfection, particularly the Magnificent 7 stocks. Even beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines wasn’t enough this quarter, at these valuations.”
“Ultimately, cooler heads will prevail. Corrections are normal, and this is a garden variety correction. For it to wane we’ll need continued good earnings growth and some economic data that stops the tide of recession fears. If you can get some of that, this correction will begin to wane."
“It’s important to keep an eye on credit spreads moving forward. That will be an important barometer for the economy and how people feel about business risk. They have widened significantly, but they’re not blowing out in the way that they would if there was something underlying wrong.”
MATT ROWE, HEAD OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT AND CROSS ASSET STRATEGIES, NOMURA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK
“In summary, the jobs report is being treated as an inflection point. Today, the bad news is being treated as 'bad news'. Prior to today, bad economic data was treated as a positive as it increased the likelihood of a rate cut and that fueled equity beta appreciation."
DAVID WAGNER, HEAD OF EQUITIES & PORTFOLIO MANAGER, APTUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, OHIO
“It all comes down to growth and what we've witnessed over the past two days is a continued trend in lower manufacturing PMIs and a weaker-than-expected jobs report that could call into question that the lagging effects of monetary policy are really starting to form and that the Fed may need to become more reactionary than proactive. “
BRIAN MULBERRY, CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ZACKS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO
“The only clear definable trend is the softening labor market leading to a decline in manufacturing leading to weaker than expected forecasts as Q2 earnings come out…With so much return attributed to so few stocks, this kind of volatility was very probable. We have also seen the broader market lower forward guidance under the high cost of capital and believed it was only a matter of time before it happened to the Mag 7 stocks too. This week’s earnings have shown that several of them are not growing as fast as anticipated.”
“There is a silver lining here. With yields now pulling back below 4%, they are travelling down to a much more competitive level with our long-term Dividend yield of 3.4%. Remember there is still $5 Trillion in money market accounts that could be looking for better treatment if the Fed does cut rates."
MATT LLOYD, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST AT ADVISORS ASSET MANAGEMENT
“What’s happening today is the realization that there are undercurrents, whether it’s the job market or consumer sentiment or the election volatility, that could be changing the reason why the Fed is cutting from inflation to a weakening economy.”
“You’re seeing decent earnings but the revenue numbers are not robust. You’ve had high retail allocations into equities and you’re getting a shakeout that will churn here for a while.”
MARK TRAVIS, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, INTREPID CAPITAL
“This market has been heavily concentrated and people are realizing now that they did not have the valuation support to keep buying at those levels."
“People are starting to reassess what their risks are and whether they are properly positioned.”
TOM PLUMB, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT PLUMB FUNDS, MADISON, WI:
"This is an old fashioned correction going on and it's obviously not something that anyone anticipates the moment it starts, or even when it's going (to)end, but it's just not that unusual as we passed the economic torch from the perception of growth to the perception of needing government intervention with lower interest rates to stabilize the economy.
"As we go through the fall and we start to see some impact of the Federal Reserve taking actions (in terms of rate cuts), we can see a recovery from the 16,600 levels right now to well over 18,000 by the end of the year."
CLAUDIA SAHM, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT NEW CENTURY ADVISORS AND FORMER FED ECONOMIST, ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA:
"The Fed, because it hasn't started to normalise yet, has a lot of room to step in and take some pressure off the economy. This is not a crisis moment. We still have a strong economy, it's just slowing in a way that needs to get under control. Given that (the Fed) has been slow to start their interest rate reductions, doing some catch up in September could make a lot of sense. They're going to want to be – appropriately so - deliberate in their actions.
"We don't need a Federal Reserve that is in crisis mode. We're not in a crisis, just... action needs to be taken... And I think that's what will happen. It's exactly how they will calibrate it will be a question. It's unfortunate that September feels a long way away right now."
SOLITA MARCELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AMERICAS, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT (IN A NOTE):
“US equity markets had been enjoying an unusually smooth rally until the middle of July. The S&P 500 had gone more than 350 trading sessions without a drop of more than 2%—the best run in 17 years. A return to higher levels of volatility was to be expected, especially as the Fed approaches the start of a cutting cycle and as investors await guidance from top tech firms on whether their heavy investments in AI are paying off. Meanwhile, political uncertainty remains elevated, especially ahead of the US presidential election in November.”
CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST AT ONLINE TRADING PLATFORM IG (IN A NOTE):
“In the space of barely two days markets have gone from looking forward to a Fed rate cut in a growing economy to fretting about an impending recession. Today’s huge payrolls miss and the surge in the US unemployment rate has sparked a fresh flight from risk assets already reeling from some poor earnings reports and concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. Investors are now hoping for a 50bps rate cut in September, but worry that even this will be too little, too late to stave off a US recession.”
MICHAEL PURVES, CEO, TALLBACKEN CAPITAL ADVISORS, NY
“This is a good excuse for investors to sell after a huge year to date rally. Does this weaker jobs number portend a recession that’s coming two quarters from now? There’s a lot of conflicting data.”
“Investors should be prepared for some major volatility, particularly in the big tech stocks. But it will probably be short-lived. The earnings reports haven’t been blockbuster, but they haven’t been bad either.”
Reporting by Finance and Markets team
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