Crown hits more than 2-year low amid uncertainty over size of rate cut
By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet
BUDAPEST, Aug 1 (Reuters) -The Czech crown fell to its weakest level in more than two years on Thursday as markets were uncertain whether the Czech National Bank will cut its main rate by 50 or 25 basis points later in the day.
The crown EURCZK= was down 0.15% and trading at 25.47 per euro at 0848 GMT after falling to 25.522 earlier, its lowest since March 2022.
"The market is torn between 25 and 50 bps but leaning closer to 50 bps," Komercni Banka rates trader Marek Lesko said in a client note.
The bank has cut interest rates by a total of 225 bps since December, taking its main rate to 4.75%, but may slow its easing pace amid the crown's weakness and lingering concerns over service sector inflation.
"The markets are currently pricing in a roughly 40bp rate cut and, in conjunction with the hawkish forecast revision, we therefore expect a hawkish outcome from today's meeting," ING wrote in a note.
"This should support the short end of the curve to the upside and with it the CZK, ... In our view, the CZK has decent potential to rally from these levels."
The Hungarian EURHUF= forint weakened 0.47% to trade at 396.05 versus the common currency, adding to its losses from earlier in the week when it slipped after worse-than-expected data on Tuesday showed GDP falling on a quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year.
Besides economic output data, the 25-bp central bank rate cut to 6.75% last week was also pressuring the forint, an FX trader in Budapest said.
The Hungarian government's ongoing conflicts with the European Union over its relationship with Ukraine and Russia were also making the currency less attractive to international investors, he added.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= slid 0.16% to 4.2950 per euro.
"The złoty is calm. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is moving in a narrow range of 4.25-4.30 and in our opinion, this is the scenario for the whole week," Bank Millennium wrote.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1048 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4700 | 25.4320 | -0.15% | -3.02% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 396.0500 | 394.1500 | -0.48% | -3.25% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2950 | 4.2880 | -0.16% | +1.15% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9755 | 4.9755 | +0.00% | -0.02% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.0200 | +0.03% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1597.99 | 1610.6800 | -0.79% | +13.01% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73787.13 | 74051.15 | -0.36% | +21.72% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2403.96 | 2421.49 | -0.72% | +2.60% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18638.56 | 18629.74 | +0.05% | +21.26% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4850 | -0.0580 | +097bps | -4bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5140 | -0.0480 | +130bps | -3bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6990 | -0.0260 | +141bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9070 | -0.0300 | +239bps | -1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.2420 | -0.0510 | +302bps | -4bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3890 | -0.0560 | +310bps | -5bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.98 | 3.61 | 3.28 | 4.53 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.56 | 6.21 | 5.80 | 6.56 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.81 | 5.67 | 5.28 | 5.86 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu
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