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Crown hits more than 2-year low amid uncertainty over size of rate cut



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By Anita Komuves and Jason Hovet

BUDAPEST, Aug 1 (Reuters) -The Czech crown fell to its weakest level in more than two years on Thursday as markets were uncertain whether the Czech National Bank will cut its main rate by 50 or 25 basis points later in the day.

The crown EURCZK= was down 0.15% and trading at 25.47 per euro at 0848 GMT after falling to 25.522 earlier, its lowest since March 2022.

"The market is torn between 25 and 50 bps but leaning closer to 50 bps," Komercni Banka rates trader Marek Lesko said in a client note.

The bank has cut interest rates by a total of 225 bps since December, taking its main rate to 4.75%, but may slow its easing pace amid the crown's weakness and lingering concerns over service sector inflation.

"The markets are currently pricing in a roughly 40bp rate cut and, in conjunction with the hawkish forecast revision, we therefore expect a hawkish outcome from today's meeting," ING wrote in a note.

"This should support the short end of the curve to the upside and with it the CZK, ... In our view, the CZK has decent potential to rally from these levels."

The Hungarian EURHUF= forint weakened 0.47% to trade at 396.05 versus the common currency, adding to its losses from earlier in the week when it slipped after worse-than-expected data on Tuesday showed GDP falling on a quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year.

Besides economic output data, the 25-bp central bank rate cut to 6.75% last week was also pressuring the forint, an FX trader in Budapest said.

The Hungarian government's ongoing conflicts with the European Union over its relationship with Ukraine and Russia were also making the currency less attractive to international investors, he added.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= slid 0.16% to 4.2950 per euro.

"The złoty is calm. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is moving in a narrow range of 4.25-4.30 and in our opinion, this is the scenario for the whole week," Bank Millennium wrote.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1048 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.4700

25.4320

-0.15%

-3.02%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

396.0500

394.1500

-0.48%

-3.25%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2950

4.2880

-0.16%

+1.15%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9755

4.9755

+0.00%

-0.02%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9800

117.0200

+0.03%

+0.23%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1597.99

1610.6800

-0.79%

+13.01%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

73787.13

74051.15

-0.36%

+21.72%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2403.96

2421.49

-0.72%

+2.60%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18638.56

18629.74

+0.05%

+21.26%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4850

-0.0580

+097bps

-4bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5140

-0.0480

+130bps

-3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6990

-0.0260

+141bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9070

-0.0300

+239bps

-1bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2420

-0.0510

+302bps

-4bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3890

-0.0560

+310bps

-5bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.98

3.61

3.28

4.53


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.56

6.21

5.80

6.56


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.81

5.67

5.28

5.86


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************




Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest, Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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