Crop Watch: Another brisk harvest week as producers switch focus to corn -Braun
Repeats column first published on Monday. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
All producers reported another week of fast-paced harvest
Corn yields remain superb in Iowa; less impressive in Illinois
Most areas are very dry, rain would be welcome
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Oct 14 (Reuters) -October has been bone-dry across the U.S. Corn Belt, leading all 11 Crop Watch producers to once again report strong harvest progress over the last week.
Most producers said that soybean harvest was complete or in the final stages. The focus will largely shift to corn this week, and widespread dryness should facilitate yet another stretch of efficient field work.
Crop Watch producers in the Dakotas, where wet autumns have caused harvest headaches in recent years, report that this year has offered one of the best-ever harvest windows in terms of weather. However, that comes with extremely dry conditions, and some of the Crop Watchers noted they would not mind some immediate rain.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday increased corn yield for top grower Iowa. The Iowa Crop Watch fields have yet to be harvested, but both producers have been consistently finding record yields as they move through their other corn fields. They chalk this up to the perfect combination of timely rains and moderate heat.
However, the Illinois Crop Watch producers have been somewhat disappointed by their corn results, which so far have been just a little above average. Those producers assume the wet spring and dry finish may have held back yields.
Harvests on both Illinois Crop Watch corn fields were in progress as of Monday. USDA on Friday left its record yield forecast for Illinois unchanged.
RESULTS
Crop Watch producers rate yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale throughout the season, finalizing the score upon harvest. Yield potential incorporates both visible and nonvisible elements where 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is record or close to it.
The 11-field, average soybean yield jumped to 3.43 from 3.39 last week after beans were harvested in North Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. The former two landed at the near-average expectations, though the Kansas yield ended just below average but a half-point higher than expected.
Corn yield stayed at 3.41 with no changes this week, though the South Dakota and eastern Iowa fields should be finished this week along with the Illinois ones. The Ohio corn was completed last week, ending at the expected 1.75 after fighting drought all season.
HARVEST PACE
Due to Monday’s U.S. holiday, USDA will publish crop progress numbers, including harvest progress, on Tuesday afternoon. On average over the last five years, about 51% of U.S. soybeans are harvested as of Oct. 13, but they could be more than 70% finished this year based on historical paces.
U.S. soy harvest progress in the first week of October jumped 21 percentage points, the week’s strongest in 13 years. If last week matched the brisk pace of 2011, soybeans would have been 71% done as of Sunday.
The five-year-average corn harvest pace for Oct. 13 is 39%, and the average weekly gain is about 12 percentage points. That would put this year’s Oct. 13 pace at 42% complete if farmers progressed normally last week.
The next several days should feature above-normal corn harvesting pace, and that could put the overall efforts near or even above 60% complete as of this coming Sunday.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Graphic- Crop Watch Producers 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/44kerF2
Writing by Karen Braun
Editing by Matthew Lewis
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