China raises 2023/24 cotton imports forecast in June
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) -China's agriculture ministry raised its forecast for cotton imports in the 2023/24 crop year by 200,000 metric tons in its June outlook, a government crop estimates report showed on Wednesday.
Cotton imports during the season is seen higher at 3 million tons after higher than expected arrivals due to a longstanding price difference between domestic and imported cotton, according to Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report.
As a result, the forecast for cotton stocks at the start of the upcoming 2024/25 crop year was raised by 2.56% from its previous estimates to 8.02 million tons.
The ministry kept its 2024/25 forecast for corn and soybeans unchanged.
Key numbers from the CASDE report are below.
2022/23 | 2023/24 June Estimate | 2024/25 May Forecast | 2024/25 June Forecast | Percentage change | |
Corn - crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 43.07 | 44.219 | 44.886 | 44.886 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 277.2 | 288.84 | 297.01 | 297.01 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 18.71 | 19.5 | 13 | 13 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 290.51 | 295 | 299.64 | 299.64 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | 5.39 | 13.33 | 10.36 | 10.36 | 0.00% |
Soybean - crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 10.243 | 10.47 | 10.163 | 10.163 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 20.28 | 20.84 | 20.54 | 20.54 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 97.5 | 96.1 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 114.15 | 115.24 | 114.56 | 114.56 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | 3.54 | 1.55 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.00% |
Cotton - crop year Sept-Aug | |||||
Beginning stocks (mln tons) | 7.13 | 7.12 | 7.82 | 8.02 | 2.56% |
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 3 | 2.788 | 2.747 | 2.747 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 5.98 | 5.62 | 5.58 | 5.58 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 1.43 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 7.4 | 7.69 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00% |
Ending Stocks (mln tons) | 7.12 | 8.02 | 7.57 | 7.77 | 2.64% |
Sugar - crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
Planted acreage (mln hectares) | 1.284 | 1.267 | 1.42 | 1.396 | -1.69% |
Cane | 1.102 | 1.1 | 1.204 | 1.18 | -1.99% |
Beet | 0.182 | 0.167 | 0.216 | 0.216 | 0.00% |
Output (mln tons) | 8.97 | 9.96 | 11 | 11 | 0.00% |
Cane sugar | 7.89 | 8.82 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.00% |
Beet sugar | 1.08 | 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 3.886 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 15.35 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.185 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | -2.68 | -0.88 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00% |
Edible oils - crop year Oct-Sept | |||||
Output (mln tons) | 30.23 | 29.9 | 30.03 | 30.03 | 0.00% |
Soybean oil | 17.49 | 17.45 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 0.00% |
Rapeseed | 7.54 | 7.21 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 0.00% |
Peanut oil | 3.41 | 3.62 | 3.83 | 3.83 | 0.00% |
Imports (mln tons) | 9.93 | 8.43 | 8.43 | 8.43 | 0.00% |
Palm oil | 4.71 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.00% |
Rapeseed | 1.98 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.00% |
Soybean oil | 0.41 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.00% |
Consumption (mln tons) | 36.92 | 37.35 | 36.65 | 36.65 | 0.00% |
Exports (mln tons) | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.00% |
Balance (mln tons) | 3.07 | 0.71 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 0.00% |
Reporting by Mei Mei Chu and the Beijing newsroom; Editing by Rashmi Aich
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