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Central European stock markets tumble on U.S worries



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Central European stock markets tumble on U.S worries</title></head><body>

WARSAW, Aug 5 (Reuters) -Central European stock markets tumbled on Monday after weak U.S. labour data raised investors' fears of a U.S. recession and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Friday's data, coming on top of a string of weak earnings reports from technology companies and concerns over the Chinese economy, drove a global sell-off in stock markets, oil and high-yielding currencies. The selling continued on Monday.

The Warsaw stock exchange blue-chip index .WIG20 fell 2.8%, the Prague bourse .PX was down 2.5%, and the market in Budapest .BUX fell 2.25%.

"We are reacting to these global moods... There is a lot of negative sentiment on the market, and of course this also affects our market, and of course there are also liquidity issues," Erste Securities analyst Lukasz Janczak said.

"There is simply much less liquidity and the moves we see are intensified. Investors somehow began to price in interest rate cuts very aggressively."

However, currencies in the region were mostly stable, except for the Polish zloty EURPLN= which fell 0.4% to 4.3055 per euro at 08.18 GMT.

"We start the new week with further deepening of the sale of riskier assets and at the same time redirecting capital towards safe bonds," Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.

"Interestingly, the zloty remains relatively calm for now, although we also believe that the EUR/PLN exchange rate will move above the level of 4.30 (with a target of 4.33)."

The Czech crown EURCZK= was slightly up at 25.2840 per euro, after data showed retail sales rose 4.4% year on year in June.

Thursday's 25-basis-point cut, described by Czech central bank governor Ales Michl as "hawkish", brought the main repo rate CZCBIR=ECI to 4.50% and came after four 50-basis-point moves.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was stable at 397.6500 per euro.

"Expectations for forint interest rates have also fallen a lot, and for the time being there is no sign here that the (central bank) will respond to the current market turmoil, at least based on current market pricing," MBH Bank said in a note.

"Until international sentiment improves and we see lower expectations for forint rates, the forint may continue to weaken."



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1018 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2840

25.3130

+0.11%

-2.30%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

397.6500

397.7500

+0.03%

-3.64%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3055

4.2885

-0.39%

+0.91%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9769

4.9760

-0.02%

-0.05%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9200

117.0200

+0.09%

+0.28%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1530.14

1568.9500

-2.47%

+8.21%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

70595.86

72218.86

-2.25%

+16.46%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2273.05

2339.16

-2.83%

-2.99%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17757.61

18425.81

-3.63%

+15.53%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3930

-0.0430

+112bps

+2bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.4270

-0.0570

+141bps

-2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.5780

-0.0540

+144bps

-3bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.7440

-0.0090

+247bps

+6bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9970

-0.0590

+298bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1610

-0.0330

+303bps

-1bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

4.04

3.61

3.21

4.45


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.48

6.05

5.59

6.54


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.72

5.43

4.97

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************







Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw, Tymon Miller in Gdansk, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest, Jan Lopatka in Prague; Editing by Ros Russell

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