BoE speakers in focus after dovish turn in data
Oct 18 (Reuters) -In the wake of softer inflationary pressures from the latest UK data, markets have grown receptive to the view that the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of other central banks by easing policy rates at a faster pace.
With a November cut having been near fully priced in prior to the data, the needle mover was the pricing for December, which now stands at 68% from 33%. Consequently, this leaves sterling – a popular bullish bet, according to CFTC data – vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
Recall that BoE Governor Andrew Bailey opened the door to a faster pace of easing when he stated that the MPC could become “a bit more activist” on rate cuts. Now that the data has taken a notable dovish turn, the argument among the more hawkish members on remaining cautious given inflation persistence has diminished, thus, BoE speak leading into the November policy will be key.
Looking ahead, there is a slew of BoE speakers on the docket next week, including Governor Bailey (Dovish), Megan Greene (Hawkish), Sarah Breeden (Neutral) and even the most hawkish MPC member, Catherine Mann. That said, with a November rate cut more or less a done deal, the focus will be on whether more BoE officials will open the door to upping the pace of rate cuts. If so, downside momentum in sterling can pick up.
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(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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