Big U.S. banks start stress test week with a rally
** Shares in big U.S. banks climbing on Monday, with S&P 500 bank index .SPXBK angling for biggest one-day percentage gain in three weeks, kicking off a week in which Federal Regulators announce results of annual stress test
** Bank index last up ~1.5%, which would be biggest one-day gain since May 31
** Fed releases "stress test" results on Wednesday, assessing how much cash big U.S. lenders would need to withstand a severe economic downturn, and how much they can return to investors via dividends, buybacks. Analysts see lenders showing ample capital to weather turmoil but expect them to be conservative on returns amid economic, regulatory uncertainties
** Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr says while most banks will have capacity to buy back 10-30% of shares "having the capital is one ingredient, but you need ability & intent to make it a reality."
** Schorr says Citigroup C.N, Bank of America BAC.N and to a "slight lesser extent" State Street STT.N could see "biggest upside surprise" given capacity to buyback >consensus forecasts and "stated willingness to do so"
** Schorr lists these cos, along with Northern Trust NTRS.O, as having most excess capital as a pct of market cap, with Morgan Stanley MS.N lagging the group
** On Mon, BAC was up 1.8%, Citi was up 1.7%, STT was up 1.4%, while MS and NTRS were up ~1%
(Reporting By Sinéad Carew)
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