Barclays says China looks 'weaker for longer', cuts Kering, Burberry
** Barclays says China looks "weaker for longer" on structural issues and cuts estimates and PTs across its coverage, while downgrading Gucci owner Kering PRTP.PA and Burberry BRBY.L
** "The sentiment on the ground was much more cautious than 6 months ago, as there is now a clear view that the Chinese weakness is structural," Barclays says after its two-week trip to China and Hong Kong
** It notes that many of the growth drivers driving Chinese to enter luxury market are not there - finance and property boom, high GDP growth
** Broker now expects luxury goods sector to grow sales about 4% in 2025 vs 7% before
** It sees a risk that expectations for Q3 could be too high in the sector and is more cautious on Kering, where it says "we heard that trends further decelerated for Gucci in Q3"
** On Burberry, it cites concerns around the company's ability to remain a high-end luxury brand
COMPANY | NEW RATING | OLD RATING | NEW PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Burberry | underweight | equal weight | 5.4 | 8.2 |
Kering | underweight | equal weight | 210 | 276 |
Hermes | overweight | overweight | 2,220 | 2,260 |
LVMH | overweight | overweight | 795 | 860 |
Moncler | overweight | overweight | 63 | 64 |
PRADA | overweight | overweight | 68 | 69 |
Richemont | overweight | overweight | 150 | 164 |
Salvatore Ferragamo | underweight | underweight | 6.87 | 7.19 |
Swatch | underweight | underweight | 145 | 153 |
Reporting by Anna Pruchnicka
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