Australia, NZ dollars fall as Trump shooting galvanises greenback
SYDNEY, July 15 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on Monday as the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump boosted his re-election odds, lifting the greenback, while the soft Chinese data failed to provide any support.
The Aussie AUD=D3 slipped 0.1% to $0.6772, having climbed 0.5% last week to a six-month top of $0.6798 thanks to favourable yield differentials. Support lies around $0.6714, with resistance up at a high from last December at $0.6871.
The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 fell 0.3% to $0.6098, after falling 0.4% last week to as low as $0.6065. It has been trending lower since New Zealand's central bank wrongfooted markets and opened the door to easing last Wednesday.
The initial reaction to the deadly shooting at the Trump rally has been to buy U.S. dollars and bitcoin, while selling long-term U.S. Treasuries. Those trades could gain in popularity ahead of the U.S. election in November.
Not helping the Antipodean currencies is soft China economic data showing the world's second-largest economy grew 4.7% in the second quarter, missing analysts' forecasts of 5.1%. However, it did underscore the need for more stimulus from Beijing as a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials gets underway.
"Expectations are low for the meeting to lead to ground breaking policy initiatives and materially lift confidence about the Chinese economy," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"That said, markets will closely watch if the government signals more demand side policies, for example to stimulate consumer spending or infrastructure spending which may give a boost to CNH, AUD and NZD."
Down Under, investors are awaiting New Zealand's CPI report on Wednesday as well as Australian jobs data on Thursday, with both viewed as critical for the immediate interest rate outlook.
Economists expect New Zealand consumer inflation slowed to 3.5% in the second quarter, the lowest in three years, from the first quarter's 4.0%, adding to the case for interest rates to be lowered as early as in August. 0#RBNZWATCH
A further climb in Australia's current jobless rate of 4.0% would argue against a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month, although much would depend on the second-quarter inflation report due at the end of July.
Markets see a 15% chance that the RBA could deliver a rate hike in August, with the first rate cut not fully priced in until August next year.
The Australian dollar AUDNZD=R fetched NZ$1.1106, nearing a 20-month top.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Jamie Freed
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
