• WTI futures attempt to break above crucial trendline

•  But their advances are constantly held down

•  Momentum indicators suggest a cautiously positive tone

WTI oil futures (February delivery) have been on the retreat since their October peak of 89.85, breaking below consecutive support zones. Although the price has been trying to recover some ground in the last few sessions, the downward sloping trendline that connects a series of lower highs since September has been acting as a strong ceiling.

If the price manages to hold above the trendline and resume its rebound, immediate resistance could be found at 75.97, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 64.20-95.02 upleg. Conquering this barricade, the bulls could attack the 50.0% Fibo of 79.61. Further upside moves could then stall around the 38.2% Fibo of 83.25.

On the flipside, should oil extend its medium-term downtrend, the 78.6% Fibo of 70.80 could act as the first line of defence. A successful break below that zone could pave the way for the 67.00-68.00 support range defined by June lows and the recent six-month bottom. Failing to halt there, the price may challenge the 2023 low of 64.20.

In brief, WTI oil futures have been stuck in a bearish medium-term pattern, appearing unable to stage a solid rebound. However, a decisive jump above the 75.97 hurdle could increase the odds for a trend reversal.