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Previews

XM Research - 14 hours ago

Bullish pound eyes $1.30 ahead of UK inflation test – Preview

June CPI numbers the highlight of this week’s UK data flurry Could the Bank of England cut interest rates next month? Pound undeterred as it extends July gains Job stats and retail sales to follow Wednesday’s CPI report (06:00 GMT) On target Inflation in the UK peaked much higher than in other major economies during the height of the energy crisis in 2022. Logic would therefore dictate that it would take longer to come down, and that is exactly what happened in 2023, to t
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

UK data eyed as pound celebrates Labour win – Preview

Monthly GDP and production figures for June on tap Strong data might hurt August rate cut expectations Pound flirts with $1.28 ahead of Thursday’s release (06:00 GMT) Uptick in GDP expected The UK economy got off to a solid start this year, emerging strongly from a technical recession in the second half of 2023. GDP grew by an impressive 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the January-March period.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Could US CPI report finally bring about a Fed pivot? - Preview

Further decline in headline CPI is expected in June Labour market is also showing signs of slowdown Will Thursday’s report (12:30 GMT) convince the Fed it’s time to cut? Ahead of that, Powell testifies on Tuesday (14:00 GMT) Fed still not convinced After several months of upside surprises earlier in the year, CPI inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

China’s problems could cloud RBA’s hawkish intentions – Preview

China to gain more airtime this week The ailing housing sector and the bond rally in focus RBA remains hawkish, but consumer appetite is critical Aussie benefits from dollar weakness Market’s focus could turn to China this week The post non-farm payrolls week tends to be a quiet one as the market digests the latest developments and prepares for the next risk events.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Spotlight on kiwi as RBNZ decides on rates next week – Preview

Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel   Kiwi has poor performance  The New Zealand dollar has faced difficulties this year in its exchange rate with other major currencies.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Investors await NFP to validate their Fed rate cut bets – Preview

Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT   Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest gathering, the FOMC appeared more hawkish than expected, revising its interest rate projections from three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year to just one.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Canada’s unemployment rate likely to rise to more than 2-year high Loonie gains some territory in the beginning of the week Employment report due on Friday at 12:30 GMT Canada employment report may guide the BoC's next policy decision Friday is the day that Canada will release employment figures, which may prove to be very important for the policy decision that the Bank of Canada will take in July.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD

French elections help euro to recoup some losses Friday’s NFP report is the week’s main driver as USDJPY holds near highs Canadian employment report next in focus with USDCAD in range French and UK elections --> EURGBP The euro experienced an increase on Monday following the initial round of France's election, which resulted in the far-right party taking the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than anticipated.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

What can we expect from the ISM business PMIs next week? – Preview

ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven    EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885   What happened previously? Dollar traders will pay close attention to the US ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for June due on Monday and Wednesday respectively at 14:00 GMT.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Eurozone CPI report: further noise or a proper signal to cut rates again? – Preview

ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three weeks since the first ECB rate cut, and the situation feels very different to a traditional monetary policy easing cycle.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Will the core PCE inflation persuade the Fed to cut rates? – Preview

US core PCE inflation index could resume downtrend Fed may ask more evidence before cutting interest rates EURUSD trades near key support zone. Is it time for an upside reversal?    Inflation could hit a new low in May Friday will see the release of the Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation measure at 12:30 GMT as the world’s largest central bank keeps looking for signs of sustained price stability around its 2.0% target almost a year after it paused its hiking cycle.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Could Tokyo CPI make the July BoJ meeting a live one? – Preview

BoJ meeting minutes summary keep the door open to a July rate hike Key data due this week, especially Friday’s Tokyo CPI Retail sales data to show consumer appetite Yen remains under pressure as officials avoid verbal intervention The BoJ is still willing to hike rates On June 14, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and failed to surprise the market.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Euro on firmer footing ahead of flash PMIs as French risks subside - Preview

Euro rebounds as French election fears ease June PMIs to come into the spotlight amid more cautious ECB Flash estimates are due on Friday at 08:00 GMT Calmer week for the euro after French turmoil European assets are having a better week following the market panic sparked by the rise of the far right across the continent in the European Parliament elections on June 9. But the biggest shockwave came from French President Emmanuelle Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative ele
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

SNB is expected to cut, but risk of disappointment – Preview

Expectations of a June cut by the SNB have been gaining traction But inflation picture isn't entirely favourable; weak franc doesn’t help A lot of uncertainty awaits the SNB’s decision due Thursday at 07:30 GMT Will the SNB cut rates again? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) got the ball rolling with interest rate cuts back in March, becoming the first major central bank to start its easing cycle.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Will the BoE signal that rate cuts are looming? – Preview

Soft UK data increase chances for September rate cut But wage growth remains elevated BoE meets on Thursday at 11:00 GMT But looming election could be a reason for cautiousness Investors more convinced about a September cut At its latest gathering, the Bank of England (BoE) appeared dovish enough to encourage market participants to assign a decent chance for a first quarter-point rate cut in June, but that didn’t last for long as the hotter-than-expected inflation data for Ap
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