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XM ResearchBullish

Technical Analysis – CHFJPY extends rally to record highs

- Marios Hadjikyriacos

CHFJPY has been steadily marching higher this year, reaching its highest levels in at least four decades, since official records began. The pair is currently challenging those record highs near the 164.00 area, a violation of which would propel the market into uncharted waters. 

On the weekly chart, momentum oscillators signal overbought conditions. The weekly RSI has flatlined but remains above the 70 level, while the weekly MACD is at its highest point in at least three decades. These readings are so extreme that they would normally be a warning for the bulls, although it is worth noting that markets can remain overbought for long periods of time. 

If buyers remain in control and pierce above the record high of 164.00, the next major resistance barrier could be near 170.00, as traders might prefer to set their stops close to round psychological numbers. Even higher, the next area of interest would be around 174.00, which is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the correction in late 2022. 

Now in case sellers come back into play and push the market lower, the first major cluster of support might be found near 158.70. That’s where the pair rebounded twice in July, and it’s also where the 50-day moving average has converged. Slicing below that region, the focus would shift towards 151.40, which was the high back in September. 

In short, the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly positive, even if the momentum indicators are at extreme levels. A break above the record high of 164.00 would likely act as fuel for buyers. 

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