Dollar gains as Powell pushes back on jumbo rate-cut bets
Fed Chair Powell says not 'in a hurry' to lower rates
Yen steadies as traders assess incoming Japanese PM
Aussie dollar firm after upbeat retail sales data
Updates prices at 1050 GMT
By Amanda Cooper and Brigid Riley
LONDON/TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) -The dollar rosebroadly on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.
The yen steadied close to the middle of its range against the dollar over the past month, after a volatile two days as traders sized up Japan's incoming prime minister and his cabinet.
The Australian dollar edged towards Monday's high after upbeat domestic retail sales data, while the euro EUR=EBS was set for a third daily loss, following inflation data that made a rate cut this month more likely.
Over in the United States, Powell adopted a more hawkish tone in a speech at a conference in Tennessee, saying the world's biggest central bank waslikely tostick with quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts from now on.
"This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly," he said.
Traders remain certain that the Fed will cut again at the next policy-settingmeeting in November, but slashed expectations for a 50 basis-point (bps) reduction to 35.4% from 53.3% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
"The door has not been closed on a 50 bps cut, because if economic data tanks then such a cut is warranted. But Powell clearly thinks markets are overly excited" about upcoming cuts, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.
The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a larger-than-expected half-point reduction last month.
Powell's speech came ahead of a heavy week of U.S. data, including the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index later on Tuesday and non-manufacturing report on Thursday, followed by Friday's potentially crucial monthly jobs figures.
If the ISM non-manufacturing data and jobs report come in above expectations again this month, the dollar could see a "decent bounce" higher before eventually resuming its downward track, said Simpson.
The dollar index =USD rose 0.4% to 101.11, marking a one-week high, havingposted a third successive monthly decline on Monday, with a near 1% fall in September.
The dollar was up 0.1% at 143.57 yenJPY=EBS, after whipsawing from as high as 146.495 yen on Friday to as low as 141.65 yen on Monday.
MARKETS SEE NEW JAPAN PM AS MONETARY HAWK
Shigeru Ishiba, due to be confirmed as Japan's new premier later on Tuesday, is seen by markets as a monetary policy hawk, despite a recent toning-downof rhetoric on the need for policy normalisation.
He won his party's leadership vote on Friday in one of the closest-ever races, and is now attempting to unify the party after calling a snap general election for Oct. 27.
Minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) September meeting showed on Tuesday that policymakers discussed the need for caution on near-term interest rate hikes, with little impact on the market.
"Ultimately, our view on the BOJ remains more hawkish than the market's pricing for 13 bps of tightening over the next three meetings, so even if the tactical picture is turning more skewed to the upside for dollar/yen – not least because of risks of correction higher in dollar rates – we are not ready to call for a sustained, multi-month yen underperformance," ING strategist Francesco Pesole said.
The euro traded around one-week lows following a drop in German inflation to the lowest since early 2021, boosting speculation about another rate reduction this month.
The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.4% on the day to $1.1085, around its lowest since Sept. 19.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told parliament that"the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner", and saidthis should be reflected in the Oct. 17 policy decision.
Deutsche Bank on Tuesday changed its ECB call, saying itnow saw another cut in October, after previouslyforecasting thenext cut in December.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was last down 0.12% on the day at $0.68995, not far from Monday's1-1/2 year peak of $0.6943, after Australian retail sales rebounded more than expected in August.
The kiwi traded at $0.63105 NZD=D3, down 0.65%.
World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill, Shri Navaratnam and Kevin Liffey
Ativos relacionados
Últimas notícias
Isenção de Responsabilidade: As entidades do XM Group proporcionam serviço de apenas-execução e acesso à nossa plataforma online de negociação, permitindo a visualização e/ou uso do conteúdo disponível no website ou através deste, o que não se destina a alterar ou a expandir o supracitado. Tal acesso e uso estão sempre sujeitos a: (i) Termos e Condições; (ii) Avisos de Risco; e (iii) Termos de Responsabilidade. Este, é desta forma, fornecido como informação generalizada. Particularmente, por favor esteja ciente que os conteúdos da nossa plataforma online de negociação não constituem solicitação ou oferta para iniciar qualquer transação nos mercados financeiros. Negociar em qualquer mercado financeiro envolve um nível de risco significativo de perda do capital.
Todo o material publicado na nossa plataforma de negociação online tem apenas objetivos educacionais/informativos e não contém — e não deve ser considerado conter — conselhos e recomendações financeiras, de negociação ou fiscalidade de investimentos, registo de preços de negociação, oferta e solicitação de transação em qualquer instrumento financeiro ou promoção financeira não solicitada direcionadas a si.
Qual conteúdo obtido por uma terceira parte, assim como o conteúdo preparado pela XM, tais como, opiniões, pesquisa, análises, preços, outra informação ou links para websites de terceiras partes contidos neste website são prestados "no estado em que se encontram", como um comentário de mercado generalizado e não constitui conselho de investimento. Na medida em que qualquer conteúdo é construído como pesquisa de investimento, deve considerar e aceitar que este não tem como objetivo e nem foi preparado de acordo com os requisitos legais concebidos para promover a independência da pesquisa de investimento, desta forma, deve ser considerado material de marketing sob as leis e regulações relevantes. Por favor, certifique-se que leu e compreendeu a nossa Notificação sobre Pesquisa de Investimento não-independente e o Aviso de Risco, relativos à informação supracitada, os quais podem ser acedidos aqui.
