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FX stuck near lows with eyes on U.S. vote, rate meetings



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By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Nov 5 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint slipped to near a more than 22-month low on Tuesday, leading losses in central Europe as markets limped into a close U.S. presidential election while preparing for interest rate meetings in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain virtually tied in U.S. opinion polls and the winner may not be known for days after Tuesday's vote.

Central European currencies have been under pressure in recent weeks from a stronger U.S. dollar against the euro, cutting risk appetite in the region, as markets positioned for a possible Trump victory.

Analysts have generally viewed Trump and his "America First" approach as negative for central Europe's currencies, with some of his policies seen as inflationary and leading to gains for the dollar.

The forint EURHUF=, central Europe's worst performer so far this year, has felt the brunt of weakness in the region caused by election uncertainty as well as a struggling Hungarian economy. The forint slid 0.28% to trade at 409.4 to the euro on Tuesday.

"All eyes are on America now. Until there is a final result, I expect currencies in the region to remain under pressure," an FX trader in Budapest said.

"When things calm down, there can be a correction, but I do not expect a huge strengthening, especially in the forint."

Elsewhere, the crown EURCZK= edged down 0.04% to 25.336 versus the common currency, staying at weakened levels before the Czech National Bank meets on Thursday, with wide expectations of another interest rate cut coming.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.11% weaker, after a rally in the previous session, when a weakening of the dollar had helped it recoup its losses from the end of last week.

"This week, and especially today and tomorrow, volatility in the markets will be generated by the U.S. election and later the (U.S. Federal Reserve rate) decision," Santander Bank Polska wrote in a note.

Before the Fed decision, the National Bank of Poland's monetary policy council is seen keeping rates on hold, as it has done for the past year after a few initial cuts.

Romania's central bank rounds out the week on Friday and some analysts also see it keeping rates on hold.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1028 CET






CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3360

25.3250

-0.04%

-2.50%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

409.4000

408.2500

-0.28%

-6.40%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3600

4.3550

-0.11%

-0.36%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9750

4.9751

+0.00%

-0.01%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9000

117.0600

+0.14%

+0.30%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1661.12

1653.6200

+0.45%

+17.48%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

74420.55

73837.78

+0.79%

+22.77%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2246.44

2252.86

-0.28%

-4.12%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17280.73

17209.02

+0.42%

+12.42%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4300

0.0100

+112bps

-1bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7100

-0.0130

+144bps

-3bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0730

0.0130

+166bps

-1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9800

-0.0110

+267bps

-3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.3720

-0.0290

+310bps

-5bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.7010

-0.0740

+329bps

-9bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.84

3.61

3.48

4.06


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

7.03

6.92

6.82

6.50


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.70

5.30

4.95

5.82


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices














Additional reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Alex Richardson

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/ Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX= Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX= Other news and reports World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
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