Forint weakest in nearly two years as markets digest Trump win
Forint weakest since December 2022, other FX fall
Polish yields climb, stocks gain
Dollar strength seen after Trump win, hitting CEE FX
Trump policies could be negative for CEE economies
Higher U.S. rates might slow monetary easing in CEE
Updates throughout with Trump victory
By Anita Komuves and Karol Badohal
WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Nov 6 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies eased to multi-month lows on Wednesday, stocks rose more than 1% and bond yields climbed after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.
Among currencies, Hungary's forint EURHUF= led losses, falling to its weakest level since December 2022 at 412.50 to the euro. By 1109 GMT, it traded 0.5 % down on the day at 411.50.
Poland's zloty EURPLN= hit a nearly five-month low before cutting losses to trade down 0.1% at 4.3645 to the euro. The Czech crown EURCZK= touched a three-month low at 25.450 per euro and but was flat on the day at 25.345 by the middle of the session.
Warsaw blue-chip stocks rose 1.2% and the Polish 10-year bond PL10YT=RR yield climbed as much as 10 basis points to 5.80%, staying off more than one-year highs above 6% touched last week.
Markets were digesting the return of Trump and the possible impact in the European Union's emerging east.
Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and tariffs, if enacted, would drive up inflation, potentially limiting how far U.S. interest rates might be lowered and strengthening the dollar.
Dollar strength has in recent weeks reduced the appetite for emerging markets currencies, like central Europe's.
Similarly, a higher U.S. interest rate path than expected will mean central banks in the region, mostly keen to cut interest rates, may not ease policy as quickly.
High rates also put pressure on countries such as Hungary, Poland and Romania that have swollen budget deficits. Already on Wednesday, Polish bond yields climbed.
"Higher interest rates in the U.S. are a problem for many EM countries with deficits and debts," ING said.
Markets will this week get an early taste of how the U.S. election affects policy outlook when central banks in Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic meet.
Poland's central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday, as it has done since two initial cuts toward the end of last year.
On Thursday, the Czech central bank is widely forecast to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would be the eighth reduction in a nearly one-year easing cycle.
Hungary has also been cutting interest rates but recently paused amid forint weakness.
Trump's return will bring new economic uncertainties and risks of U.S. tariffs disrupting trade.
Most central European economies are highly export-oriented and already are struggling to recover from the inflation surges of the last few years, while factories face weakened demand from trade partners like Germany.
"The economic impact of potential Trump tariffs on European imports would of course be negative for a small open economy like the Czech Republic," Jaromir Gec, economist at Komercni Banka, said.
"However, the biggest unknown is what Trump policies will actually be and what was 'just part of the campaign'."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1209 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3450 | 25.3460 | +0.00% | -2.54% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 411.5000 | 409.3000 | -0.53% | -6.88% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3645 | 4.3595 | -0.11% | -0.46% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9755 | 4.9759 | +0.01% | -0.02% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 117.0600 | +0.11% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1673.91 | 1666.4900 | +0.45% | +18.38% |
Budapest | .BUX | 75584.53 | 74343.85 | +1.67% | +24.69% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2262.54 | 2236.48 | +1.17% | -3.43% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17285.97 | 17236.29 | +0.29% | +12.46% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4410 | -0.0130 | +127bps | +11bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.8050 | 0.0110 | +162bps | +12bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0680 | -0.0280 | +170bps | +4bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9990 | -0.0110 | +282bps | +12bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4340 | 0.0470 | +325bps | +16bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7920 | 0.0950 | +342bps | +16bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.85 | 3.65 | 3.53 | 4.04 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 7.15 | 7.02 | 6.93 | 6.54 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.35 | 5.01 | 5.84 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Karol Badohal and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest, and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Alex Richardson and Barbara Lewis
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