US natgas prices slide 3% on rising output, oversupply in storage
By Scott DiSavino
July 23 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Tuesday on rising output and an ongoing oversupply of gas in storage.
Analysts said there was still about 17% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though injections have been smaller than usual for nine of the past 10 weeks after several producers cut output earlier in the year when futures prices dropped to 3-1/2 year lows in February and March. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Higher prices in April and May, however, prompted some drillers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to boost output so far in June and July.
EQT is the nation's biggest gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest after its planned merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N. EQT, meanwhile, completed its roughly $14 billion acquisition of Equitrans, the pipeline company EQT spun off in 2018.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.9 cents, or 2.6%, to $2.192 per million British thermal units at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT).
That price increase came despite rising amounts of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as Freeport LNG in Texas started exporting cargoes again after shutting for Hurricane Beryl in early July.
Another factor that was keeping the price decline in check were forecasts that the weather over much of the Lower 48 U.S. states would turn extremely hot in August. That should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to produce electricity to keep air conditioners humming.
In addition to the heat, power generators were also burning more gas because the amount of electricity coming from wind so far this week was much lower than usual.
Wind farms were on track to produce an average of just 4% of power generation this week, down from 7% last week, 12% so far in 2024 and 10% in 2023. Gas-fired power plants were producing an average of 48% of generation this week, up from 46% last week, 40% so far in 2024 and 41% in 2023.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 102.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May.
U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 would remain mostly near normal through July 27 before turning hotter than normal through at least Aug. 7.
With hotter weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 104.8 bcfd this week to 106.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.6 bcfd so far in July after Freeport shut before Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas Coast on July 8, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a two-week high of 12.6 bcfd on Tuesday as the 2.1-bcfd Freeport slowly returns to service.
Gas flows to Freeport, which started to exit a nine-day outage on July 16, held near 1.4 bcfd on Monday and Tuesday after the plant pulled in almost no gas from July 7-15.
Week ended July 19 Forecast | Week ended July 12 Actual | Year ago July 19 | Five-year average July 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +24 | +10 | +23 | +31 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,233 | 3,209 | 2,982 | 2,775 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 16.5% | 16.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.24 | 2.25 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.02 | 10.18 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.10 | 12.12 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 243 | 240 | 234 | 212 | 203 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 244 | 244 | 235 | 214 | 207 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.3 | 102.2 | 102.2 | 102.3 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.2 | 109.7 | 110.0 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.0 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 49.1 | 47.0 | 47.3 | 48.3 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 86.2 | 84.0 | 84.5 | 84.8 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.2 | 104.8 | 106.1 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 26 | Week ended Jul 19 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 48 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.19 | 1.88 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.54 | 1.62 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.75 | 3.20 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.40 | 1.19 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.83 | 1.76 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.75 | 1.62 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.83 | 2.55 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.94 | 0.27 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.77 | 0.85 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 38.50 | 30.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 55.50 | 33.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 23.75 | 26.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 73.00 | 83.50 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 81.00 | 76.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 72.25 | 48.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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