US natgas prices jump 6% on rising feedgas to Freeport LNG in Texas
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
July 22 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a one-week high on Monday with an increase in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants as Freeport LNG in Texas started exporting cargoes again after shutting for Hurricane Beryl in early July.
Traders also noted that the hottest weather of the summer is forecast to cover much of the U.S. Lower 48 states in early August.
That heat could boost the amount of gas power generators burn to produce electricity for air conditioning to a fresh record high, topping the current all-time high set on July 9.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.3 cents, or 5.8%, to settle at $2.251 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 12.
That also put the contract up for a third day in a row for the first time since early June.
In other news, Australian energy firm Woodside Energy Group WDS.AX agreed to buy U.S. LNG developer Tellurian TELL.K for about $1.2 billion in a deal that could increase the chances that Tellurian's Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana will be built.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.4 bcfd in May. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through July 28 before turning hotter than normal through at least Aug. 6.
With hotter weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 104.7 bcfd this week to 105.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.5 bcfd so far in July after Freeport shut before Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas Coast on July 8, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
With Freeport starting to export LNG over the weekend for the first time since Beryl, gas flows to the 2.1 bcfd plant was on track to rise to around 1.0 bcfd on Monday, up from 0.8 bcfd on Sunday after the facility pulled in almost no gas from July 7-15.
Week ended July 19 Forecast | Week ended July 12 Actual | Year ago July 19 | Five-year average July 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +24 | +10 | +23 | +31 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,233 | 3,209 | 2,982 | 2,775 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 16.5% | 16.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.19 | 2.13 | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.97 | 10.12 | 9.58 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.12 | 12.20 | 11.44 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 240 | 236 | 234 | 212 | 204 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 244 | 238 | 235 | 214 | 207 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.3 | 101.7 | 101.9 | 102.0 | 95.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.9 | 7.4 | 7.6 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.2 | 109.1 | 109.5 | N/A | 112.5 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.9 | N/A | 6.1 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 11.0 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 8.6 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 49.1 | 47.2 | 47.6 | 48.0 | 43.3 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 86.2 | 84.2 | 84.8 | 84.6 | 79.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.2 | 104.7 | 105.9 | N/A | 96.9 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 26 | Week ended Jul 19 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 47 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 18 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.88 | 2.00 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.62 | 1.23 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.20 | 3.21 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.19 | 1.21 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.76 | 1.70 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.62 | 1.53 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.55 | 2.71 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.27 | 0.50 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.85 | 0.81 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 30.25 | 33.50 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 33.50 | 35.50 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 26.25 | 25.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 83.50 | 80.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 76.00 | 68.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 48.00 | 58.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York
Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Matthew Lewis
For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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