Leading wheat and soybean exporters grapple with historic droughts -Braun
Repeats column published earlier. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Oct 1 (Reuters) -Top grain producing regions of Russia and Brazil experienced one of their driest Septembers on record, just as farmers in both export giants were attempting to sow their crops.
This has driven winter wheat planting rates to 11-year lows in Russia, which accounts for as much as a quarter of global wheat exports.
Brazil is responsible for nearly 60% of world soybean exports, but planting in top state Mato Grosso had barely begun as of last Friday, the slowest start in more than five years.
These threats coincide with the recent rise of global wheat and soybean prices off four-year lows, though prices are still considerably below the more elevated levels seen within the last couple of years.
Luckily for Brazil, soybean planting efforts are still in the early stages and there is some rain in the forecast for parched areas like Mato Grosso.
But the situation is more dire in Russia, where winter grain sowing is well under way and there is little to no relief in sight.
RUSSIA
In Russia’s Southern District, where winter wheat production is heaviest, September was the seventh consecutive month in which precipitation was short of average. Precipitation was 47% of normal during that seven-month span, the driest in at least three decades.
September is a very busy month for wheat planting, though it was particularly tough for Southern farmers as temperatures were the warmest in nearly a decade and rainfall was just a quarter of normal levels.
Things have been equally challenging in areas further north. Voronezh, which borders Ukraine and was Russia’s fifth-largest grain producing region last year, declared a state of emergency on Tuesday due to drought conditions.
The forecast is not at all promising. Some weather models on Tuesday suggested that Russia’s Southern District may not accumulate more than 5 mm (0.2 inch) of rainfall through mid-October. The full-month’s ten-year average is 35 mm.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are also expected to persist through this period.
Such extreme dryness not only slows the sowing pace, but it impacts the emergence and early growth of plants. Some 8.3 million hectares (20.5 million acres) of winter grains were sown in Russia as of Sept. 20, implying scores of newly emerged wheat fields could be in grim shape.
The last time precipitation in the Southern District was less than half of normal in both September and October was in 2012. Fortunately, this was not a death sentence for the crops as late fall and early winter precipitation, although light, came at optimal times.
But the stakes are a bit higher now. Russian wheat production is about 60% larger than it was just 12 years ago, when the country accounted for an average of 11% of annual global exports.
BRAZIL
September rainfall in Mato Grosso, which produces 29% of Brazil’s soybean crop, was roughly a quarter of normal levels. Excessive dryness over the last year has driven soil moisture levels there to 30-year lows.
As such, soybean planting in the Center-West state is off to a slow start. Sustained planting delays also delay the harvest, pushing back the availability of Brazilian supplies on the world market.
On average, just 3% of Mato Grosso’s soybeans would be planted by last Friday, so it is early enough to rewrite the script. Weather forecasts may support that, as they have been suggesting more frequent rains for the region toward mid-October.
One possible concern is that the forecast models continue pushing the larger rainfall totals for Mato Grosso further out in time, meaning observed rainfall might disappoint versus expectations.
Additionally, rainfall there is likely to remain notably short of normal levels by mid-month, though that might not be a problem if current outlooks come to fruition and late October rains are steady.
The south is helping Brazil’s overall efforts. The No. 2 producing state of Parana has planted 22% of its soybeans, comfortably ahead of its average pace despite its own struggles with dryness this year.
Right now, the Brazilian weather story mostly pertains to planting, but the conversation will quickly turn to yield if sufficient moisture is not restored this month.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Graphic- Monthly precipitation in Russia's Southern District https://tmsnrt.rs/47RQG8P
Graphic- Monthly precipitation in Mato Grosso, Brazil https://tmsnrt.rs/4eMer4I
Editing by Sonali Paul
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