Europe to crank up gas-fired output and emissions as winter sets in: Maguire
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By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 5 (Reuters) -Europe's natural gas-fired electricity generation and associated emissions fell to multi-year lows over the first three quarters of 2024, but are set to rebound sharply towards year-end as solar output drops just as demand for heating climbs.
From January through September, Europe's total electricity production from coal and natural gas was 1,236 terawatt hours (TWh), according to energy think tank Ember.
That total was 7.5% down from the same months in 2023, and triggered a 7% drop in power emissions to 928 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), the lowest in at least a decade.
However, Europe's peak heating period lies towards year-end when solar output is at its lowest, and means power producers must replace the lost emissions-free solar output and lift overall generation with more gas-fired supplies.
Some parts of Europe will also crank coal-fired generation to help meet system demand needs, which will result in an even steeper climber in power sector emissions.
But natural gas is Europe's largest single power fuel, and will be the primary source of generation - and emissions - growth heading into the coldest period of the year.
SOLAR SLUMP
Europe's solar electricity generation falls by at least 50% over the winter from the peak summer months, Ember data shows.
In 2024, that means that the average solar generation levels of June through August of around 44 TWh a month may drop to less than 20 TWh a month in November, December and January.
Solar's share of the overall generation mix is also usually at least cut in half during the height of winter, from around 11% to less than 5%.
For power suppliers, that drop in solar generation is exacerbated by a rise in overall power demand during the peak winter period.
In 2023, overall electricity consumption during the final quarter of the year was 14% more than during June, July and August, and so placed extra strain on power suppliers to boost output just as solar production dropped to its annual lows.
In 2024, a similar-sized rise in overall electricity demand will mean power firms must deploy alternate power sources to plug the supply gap, with natural gas the most widely-used replacement for lost supplies and to raise overall output.
COLD COMFORT
Just how much electricity demand will rise by will depend on a number of factors, including the levels of economic activity heading into 2025 and how cold temperatures get during winter.
Gauges on Europe's economic health remain broadly weak, but recent gross domestic product (GDP) data pointed to a modest expansion during the latest quarter.
The threat of hefty new tariffs from a potential new Trump presidency in the United States, as well as enduring trade tensions with China, continue to stifle consumer sentiment and will likely curb economic growth heading into 2025.
Over the nearer term, the weather may play a larger role in driving shifts in energy use.
From 2020 through 2023, the average temperatures in Germany were 63% lower during the final quarter of the year compared to the third quarter, according to LSEG.
Actual temperature readings have historically averaged 5.6 degrees Celsius (42 degrees Fahrenheit) over the final three months of the year compared to 17 Celsius (63 Fahrenheit) during the previous quarter.
That drop in temperatures typically triggers a steep rise in heating demand in houses, factories and offices, which drives electricity and power use sharply higher.
To feed that higher demand, natural gas consumption for power generation in Germany is expected to climb by around 25% from current levels to around 3,500 Gigawatt hours per day in December, according to LSEG.
If that degree of gas-use increase is seen throughout Europe, that would equate to roughly 100 TWh of gas-fired power during the last month of the year, and the highest gas generation tally since January.
That generation level would yield roughly 55 million tons of CO2 in gas-fired emissions, which again would be the highest since the start of the year.
Those increases in both gas use and power pollution would mark a reversal in the generation and emissions trends seen so far in 2024.
But with output from solar panels throughout the region set to fall off sharply, power suppliers will have little choice but to crank up the gas over the final months of the year.
<The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.>
Europe's coal and natural gas-fired electricity generation set to jump again this winter https://tmsnrt.rs/40wefT6
Europe's solar electricity generation set to slump this winter https://tmsnrt.rs/4hCwNXR
Europe's electricity generation by source https://tmsnrt.rs/3YOLHD8
Europe gas-fired generation, power emissions and average temperatures https://tmsnrt.rs/3UC4q2n
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Michael Perry
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