Yen drifts lower from 2-1/2-month peak vs dollar as markets stabilize
U.S. GDP rises more than expected in Q2
U.S. jobless claims fall unexpectedly
U.S. durable good orders plunge in June
Futures market prices higher chance of BOJ rate hike
Dollar falls to lowest since May vs Chinese yuan
Adds comment, graphic, updates prices
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - Theyen edged lower from a 2-1/2-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as financial markets stabilized, with investors looking ahead to next week's Bank of Japan meeting which could see a potential rate hike.
The Japanese unit this week rallied sharply as market participants unwound their long-held betsagainst the currency. At the same time,a plunge in global stocks in recent sessions had driveninvestors toward traditionally safe assets such as the Swiss franc and yen.
U.S. equities, however, recovered on Thursday after a steep sell-off in the previous session.
For the week, the yen has risen 2.4%, on track for its best weekly gain since late April. The greenback was last slightly down at 153.84 yen JPY=EBS.
The dollar, however, trimmed losses against the yen and euro after data showed the world's largest economy expanded faster than expected and inflation slowed in the second quarter. That reducedbrewing expectations of a larger-than-expected rate cut in September, or a sudden FederalReserve easing at next week's meeting.
"The Japanese yen is flatlining on diminished safe-haven demand, and the speculative fervor behind its recent bull run seems to be running out of steam," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
"We think markets have gotten a little too far over their skis given that underlying economic fundamentals don't yet support a rapid tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan, and that rate differentials will remain wide even if the Fed begins cutting in coming months."
The rate futures market has priced in a 67.2% chance that the BOJ will raise rates next week by 10 basis points (bps), up from about 40% earlier in the week, according to LSEG estimates.
The euro was slightly up against the dollar at $1.0846EUR=EBS, with the dollar index flat at104.36 =USD. The index was at 104.21 just before the release of economic growth data.
Advance estimates showed that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.0% rate.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased at a 2.9% rate after surging at a 3.7% pace in the first quarter.
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar dropped 0.5% to 0.8806 francs CHF=EBS.
AHEAD OF ITSELF
"The market got ahead of itself on Fed cuts. Before the GDP number, the market is pricing as if the Fed is going to cut 50 basis points in September," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York.
He also cited comments from former New York Fed President Bill Dudley in a Bloomberg column on Wednesday, who said the Fed should cut rates next week, citing recent employment data.
"TheGDP number shows that the Fed is not under that kind of urgency," Chandler said.
The Fed remains firmly on track to cut interest rates in September, according to fed funds futures data. The futures market has also priced in about 68 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, based on LSEG calculations.
U.S. jobless claims data were also consistent with an economy still holding up well.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended July 20, the data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 238,000 claims for the latest week.
The only blemish, however, was the U.S. durables report, which showed durable goods orders fell 6.6% in June on slumping transportation orders, compared with expectations for a 0.3% rise.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell to US$0.6519, its lowest since early May. It was last down 0.6%against the greenback atUS$0.6541.
China's yuan CNY=CFXS rallied against the dollar, which fell to its lowest since early May at 7.205, as the yen's rally spilled over to the Chinese unit. The dollar was last down 0.2% at 7.245
Currency bid prices at 25 July 07:28 p.m. GMT | |||||||
Description | RIC | Last | U.S. Close Previous Session | Pct Change | YTD Pct | High Bid | Low Bid |
Dollar index | =USD | 104.31 | 104.38 | -0.05% | 2.90% | 104.45 | 104.07 |
Euro/Dollar | EUR=EBS | 1.0852 | 1.084 | 0.12% | -1.68% | $1.087 | $1.0829 |
Dollar/Yen | JPY=D3 | 153.9 | 153.86 | 0.01% | 9.09% | 154.3 | 151.96 |
Euro/Yen | EURJPY= | 1.0852 | 166.79 | 0.13% | 7.31% | 167.59 | 164.83 |
Dollar/Swiss | CHF=EBS | 0.8806 | 0.8852 | -0.53% | 4.62% | 0.8854 | 0.8778 |
Sterling/Dollar | GBP=D3 | 1.2861 | 1.2906 | -0.33% | 1.08% | $1.2913 | $1.0829 |
Dollar/Canadian | CAD=D3 | 1.3808 | 1.3808 | 0% | 4.16% | 1.385 | 1.3797 |
Aussie/Dollar | AUD=D3 | 0.6549 | 0.6582 | -0.46% | -3.92% | $0.6582 | $0.6511 |
Euro/Swiss | EURCHF= | 0.9554 | 0.9594 | -0.42% | 2.89% | 0.9598 | 0.9522 |
Euro/Sterling | EURGBP= | 0.8435 | 0.8397 | 0.44% | -2.69% | 0.8439 | 0.8395 |
NZ Dollar/Dollar | NZD=D3 | 0.5893 | 0.593 | -0.68% | -6.8% | $0.593 | 0.5873 |
Dollar/Norway | NOK= | 11.0151 | 11.0265 | -0.1% | 8.68% | 11.1381 | 10.983 |
Euro/Norway | EURNOK= | 11.9548 | 11.953 | 0.02% | 6.49% | 12.0856 | 11.9317 |
Dollar/Sweden | SEK= | 10.8111 | 10.7772 | 0.31% | 7.39% | 10.8685 | 10.765 |
Euro/Sweden | EURSEK= | 11.7314 | 11.6822 | 0.42% | 5.45% | 11.7786 | 11.6784 |
US GDP beats forecasts and still humming https://tmsnrt.rs/4fiQvH2
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Harry Robertson in London and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Alex Richardson, Mark Potter and Andrea Ricci
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